Powerball!!!

[from_the_NEK]

Ok math people. How do lottery odds work for Powerball?

I've looked at it this way:

Exact odds for winning with one ticket are: 1 in 175,223,510
Buying 100 tickets actually "increases" you odds to: 1 in 175,223,410

There are 175,223,510 possible combinations of balls. Buying one ticket locks you in for one combination. Buying 100 tickets just buys you 100 combinations.

Therefore, I never buy more than one ticket.

However, an article I read says buying 100 tickets increases your odds to 1 in 7,000,000.
How could this be so ?

 

[o3jeff]

I'll usually buy 2 when it gets up to a few hundred million.

 

[Puck it]

Your math is wrong.

Powerball is a 5/49+1/42 game whose first 5 numbers are drawn from 1 ~ 49 and last digit number is drawn from a separate number set 1 ~ 42. There are possible combinations for the first 5 numbers drawn. So there are totally 1,960,884x42 = 80,089,128 possible combinations for Powerball.

Exact odds for winning with one ticket are: 1 : 175,223,504
Exact odds for winning with one ticket buying 100 tickets with different combinations are: 1 : 1,752,235

The difference between is a two orders of magnitude due to the 100 tickets.

 

[SkiingInABlueDream]

I struggled through statistics class, beyond the most basic stuff.
If you roll a 6 sided die and get to choose 1 number, your odds are 1:6. If you get to choose 2 numbers then your odds become 2:6, not 1:4 right? So if that's correct then yeah, your odds at powerball increase 100x.

Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?

 

[Puck it]

I struggled through statistics class, beyond the most basic stuff.
If you roll a 6 sided die and get to choose 1 number, your odds are 1:6. If you get to choose 2 numbers then your odds become 2:6, not 1:4 right? So if that's correct then yeah, your odds at powerball increase 100x.

Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?

The issue there is the number of multiple winners probability. The time that it would take to get 175M different tix printed too.

 

[wa-loaf]

Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?

Prob not once taxes are figured in and the odds of having to share with someone.

I grabbed a quick pick and did one with birthday numbers and stuff. I know I'm most likely throwing my cash away ...

 

[from_the_NEK]

Your initial numbers are wrong. Powerball has 59 White balls and 35 Red balls.
So a 5/59+1/35 game

I think the caculation works out something like this:

1/[(59x58x57x56x55/5x4x3x2x1)x35] = 1 in 175,223,510

or a 0.00000005707% chance of winning with one ticket.

100 tickets gets you 0.000005707% chance of winning (which is where the two orders of magnitude come in)?

 

[from_the_NEK]

Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?

Actually, if you were able to buy 175,223,510 tickets and make sure they didn't repeat combinations you would win the jackpot but the tickets would have cost you $350,447,020. The lump sum cash payout on the current jackpot is $327.4 million (before taxes). So it wouldn't pay off. Add the fact that you would stand a pretty good chance of splitting the jackpot (due to the large numbers of tickets being sold) and your ticket "investment" would end up even worse .

The lump sum payout

 

[SkiingInABlueDream]

Nevermind the fact that if you have a spare 175 mil in your pocket you don't need lottery.

Edit: yeah, I usually buy a couple tickets when the pot gets big too.

 

[Puck it]

Your initial numbers are wrong. Powerball has 59 White balls and 35 Red balls.
So a 5/59+1/35 game

I think the caculation works out something like this:

1/[(59x58x57x56x55/5x4x3x2x1)x35] = 1 in 175,223,510

or a 0.00000005707% chance of winning with one ticket.

100 tickets gets you 0.000005707% chance of winning (which is where the two orders of magnitude come in)?

Oops. never trust google. I never play so I did not know how many balls there were. The two orders of magnitude come from the 100 tickets.

 

[ctenidae]

The Lottery is a tax on people who can't do math.

That's not to say it's not fun to think about and dream, and when the numbers get high enough it's fun to play. Daily scratch ticket players, though, are paying a completely voluntary tax.

 

[from_the_NEK]

So the 100 tickets drops two zeros from the percent chance of winning.

According to your example above, it would be "1 in 1,752,235".
That just seems to improve the odds too much by only buying 100 tickets. But if I do the full progression..

100 tickets = 1 in 1,752,235 odds
1000 tickets = 1 in 175,223
10,000 tickets = 1 in 17,522
100,000 tickets = 1 in 1,752
1,000,000 tickets = 1 in 175
10,000,000 tickets = 1 in 17.5
100,000,000 tickets = 1 in 1.7


I better go buy 100 tickets! I can't pass up those odds.

 

[Puck it]

So the 100 tickets drops two zeros from the percent chance of winning.

According to your example above, it would be "1 in 1,752,235".
That just seems to improve the odds too much by only buying 100 tickets. But if I do the full progression..

100 tickets = 1 in 1,752,235 odds
1000 tickets = 1 in 175,223
10,000 tickets = 1 in 17,522
100,000 tickets = 1 in 1,752
1,000,000 tickets = 1 in 175
10,000,000 tickets = 1 in 17.5
100,000,000 tickets = 1 in 1.7


I better go buy 100 tickets! I can't pass up those odds.

Ding ding ding

 

[dansherpa]

Buy 100 tickets with the same numbers, so when those numbers are drawn, even if someone else has the same numbers, you get almost all of the jackpot.

 

[ctenidae]

Buy 100 tickets with the same numbers, so when those numbers are drawn, even if someone else has the same numbers, you get almost all of the jackpot.

Now, that's tricky!

 

[RootDKJ]

The Lottery is a tax on people who can't do math.

That's not to say it's not fun to think about and dream, and when the numbers get high enough it's fun to play. Daily scratch ticket players, though, are paying a completely voluntary tax.

^ Yup. A very clever tax indeed.

 

[ScottySkis]

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

I once counted 200 scratch off tickets in 2 hours, cost of tickets if they were sold to me would have been $400, total winnings was $75, made me stop buying lottery.

 

[ctenidae]

Well, I didn't win, but I did read the FAQ on the Powerball website, and I have to say, it was pretty funy. Incredibly funny based on what one would expect from a multistate lottery site, but actually funny in its own right as well.

 

[Glenn]

:lol:

First, we need to cover some things that don’t work. Swinging a live chicken
above your head while wishing for the future numbers does NOT work. There is no
improvement to be had by swinging a dead chicken. Although I have not tested it,
swinging a bucket of extra crispy is not likely to work either. We have had
winners who played their fortune cookie numbers – on two occasions – but such
things are just bound to happen sometimes. It is also no good to follow the
alignment of the planets or the arrangement of tea leaves or any other such
thing. Any of these ideas will win sometimes, but that is just chance working
its magic and there is no guarantee.

http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp

 

[gmcunni]

got my winning ticket today. estimated cash payout around $230M lump sum.

Plan is to purchase a nice summer home in South Carolina, either Hilton Head or Kiawah Island.

Due to family considerations we'll stay in CT for a few more years, probably do a seasonal rental in VT rather than invest there.

After that we'll move west, buy a small place in Denver downtown (thinking high rise condo right downtown) and a large house in the mountains. Perhaps Breckenridge area since my wife loves that town.

I figure Memorial Day to Labor Day in the summer home. We'll hang in Denver during the fall with occasional trips to the mountains. We'll spend more time in the mountains during the snowy months but trek back to the city for occasion nights out or for a change of scenery, especially during the pesky tourist weekends.