The 2/23 - 2/26 Storm Discussion Thread

[WJenness]

Off to the office... sigh...

-w

 

[drjeff]

I haven't gone out with a ruler yet but...I DON'T NEED TO!!!!!

There's clearly over a foot of snow on the ground, and it's still dumping!!!

And this is at low elevation...

Can't wait to see Mt. Snow!!!!

Finally, the snow gods have delivered!!!!

Nice Euler! Just saw the Mount Snow AM report: 15-18" down already with the call for another 5 to 9" today! Nice!

Meanwhile in Eastern CT, we've got about 1-2" of precip that I can only describe as a slurpee covering the roads

 

[Glenn]

Forecast discussion from the Albany Office. Still looking good for Thrusday night into Friday.Let's hope that mixing holds off....

FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS INDICATE A RANGE OF
SNOW OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE
BEEN MUCH HIGHER IF IT WAS CERTAIN THAT THE PTYPE WOULD BE ALL
SNOW.

 

[drjeff]

Going to be real close Thurs/Friday for who stays all snow and who mixes. This storm looks to pack a bunch more energy than the one finishing up today, and the way that models suggest that it wants to back into New England could very well allow a large area of warm air to get well into interior New England. Elevation may not be enough in some places to keep it all snow for the entire storm on this one. One model run that I saw this AM, had the warm air dividing line being essentially the Hudson River

Still about a million variables to play out though. Right now about the only thing that appears certain with storm #2 is that it's going to have some impressive winds with it, but what and how much for the storm is still TBD

 

[psyflyer]

Burke has about 6-8 inches on the ground at the base. Not as much as other resorts (based on what I read here) but we'll take it! Today will be a fun fun day, lifts here we come!

 

[KingM]

Oh, and no, Sugarbush's forecast is different by the way...

Wed: Decent accumulations possible...about a foot possible (10-14")

Hey, I was trying to defend your forecast, while still acknowledging last week's disappointment. In any event, we're currently getting buried up here in the MRV, so all is forgiven. :beer:

We easily had a foot on the valley floor at first light this morning and it is absolutely dumping. Even if it stopped right this moment, we'd have the biggest snows in two years. And with another foot scheduled to fall before the big event tomorrow...

Now wouldn't you know it, I'm getting cancellations for the weekend from people who say they're afraid to drive up from Jersey and PA on Friday.

 

[Philpug]

Cool, hope to be back up Sun/Mon for the tracked out sloppy seconds.

 

[psyflyer]

Im looking at the radar before heading out (woke up late, but its Wendesday at Burke so your pretty much guaranteed first tracks all day long anyways) and the snow/rain line has already creeped into NH and VT from the west side. Is it looking like an all snow event today or is there a possibility of change over for NVT? Thanks for your forecast WC always appreciated.

 

[salsgang]

Saddleback does a good job with wind in my experience this season. There's only been one day (Dec 27th) when we had that nasty wind/rain that the mtn didnt open. It was probably 35+ mph winds at the base with maybe double the gusts up top.

Thing to keep in mind about Saddleback is that they have the T bar running just up from the base. You can hop on that and ride the Pass across over to the Kennebago (upper) quad. The quad there is nice in that it is built low to the ground...below the trees and I've never seen an issue with chairs swining up there this year even on the real breezy days.

I will be at Saddleback for the wknd first thing Sat AM.

As of Wednesday morning, Saddleback is on wind hold except for the south branch chair according to their website. Saddleback does very well with a north / northwest wind as it blows straight up the chairs. However, this storm is a east / southeast wind which is probably causing the problems. Regardless hoping to get up to the 'Back Saturday!!! Stay south Niar!

 

[WinnChill]

Im looking at the radar before heading out (woke up late, but its Wendesday at Burke so your pretty much guaranteed first tracks all day long anyways) and the snow/rain line has already creeped into NH and VT from the west side. Is it looking like an all snow event today or is there a possibility of change over for NVT? Thanks for your forecast WC always appreciated.

Yeah, some REAL heavy stuff working in from the south...should stay all snow for most VT..maybe a bit of mixing south (Mt Snow thru Okemo?) but it's not moving too fast...NVT should be ok...expect most of the mixing from the east to hold off til tonight/Thurs with round 2.

Seeing that we've hit the forecasted ranges already, we've shifted into nowcasting mode and nudged things up a bit for VT. At this point it's just gravy anyways--enjoy!!!

 

[2knees]

Winn, what do you expect for Magic thurs/friday, located about 15 miles south of Ludlow, Vt with a max elevation of 2,900 feet.

 

[4aprice]

Boy the forecasts have been all over the place. I don't think anything is written in stone yet. I should be elated as currently this is forecast as a Pocono/Catskill special but I hate seeing our northern breatheren get screwed and I have to see it to believe it. Question is should I leave for the Pocono's tonight.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[WinnChill]

Winn, what do you expect for Magic thurs/friday, located about 15 miles south of Ludlow, Vt with a max elevation of 2,900 feet.

Eeeesh! It's gonna be a tough one! I tried to narrow it down here. New model data comes out shortly so we'll adjust as the day moves along.

 

[2knees]

Eeeesh! It's gonna be a tough one! I tried to narrow it down here. New model data comes out shortly so we'll adjust as the day moves along.

so it does look like a switch back to all snow for friday but mixing seem almost a certainty. based upon your forecast and what i've read on the nws.

thanks for the info.

 

[WinnChill]

so it does look like a switch back to all snow for friday but mixing seem almost a certainty. based upon your forecast and what i've read on the nws.

thanks for the info.

Pretty much...once the strong easterly winds ease off trying to pull that warm air in, colder air should settle back in dropping the snow levels. We'll see if that trend holds with the new data. I haven't even had time to read what the NWS has been saying.

 

[180]

What are your thoughts for the Catskills?

 

[tarponhead]

Boy the forecasts have been all over the place. I don't think anything is written in stone yet. I should be elated as currently this is forecast as a Pocono/Catskill special but I hate seeing our northern breatheren get screwed and I have to see it to believe it. Question is should I leave for the Pocono's tonight.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Unfortunately, I got a meeting tomorrow AM... As soon as that puppy is over I'm headed to Blue.

 

[WinnChill]

What are your thoughts for the Catskills?

I could see between 1 and 2 feet by Friday. They may catch a bit of mixing too. Wish we could be a little more specific but manpower is limited.

 

[kingslug]

Hunter and Plattekill are reporting 22 inches already....damn...

 

[Greg]

6" at my house with a bunch of rain on top. Clearing the driveway SUCKED today. My snow thrower is only 5HP and it just wasn't cutting it.

Eyeing Hunter for Friday.