The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[powderfreak]

Also, if you don't have this site bookmarked already, you might want to:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Its the Hydro Prediction Center's snow/ice probability forecasts and they generally do a good job from what I've seen...though usually conservative as they are mostly forecasting for populated regions like the NWS offices. They dont really consider, nor forecast for, what will happen above 2,000ft as very few people live above that elevation in the northeast.
I use this stuff for more of a tool to forecast as you need to sort of read between the lines with them...use the boundaries as a general idea of where heavy snow will fall.

But I like that their forecast is generally in line with mine as far as the zone for max snowfall. This is also through only 12z or 7am on Monday so they have a low probability of 4" or greater by that time. Since they only forecast 3 days out, by 5pm tonight they'll have the snowfall probabilities out for 7pm on Monday which will give a much better idea as that 12hr period is when the max snow will fall.

Just another illustration of where you might want to put yourself for Monday/Tuesday:

 

[Greg]

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EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website. I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it. Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south. I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
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No worries. I uploaded the two images to our gallery and re-embedded the smaller version. The gallery will auto resize to 1024 with a 800 pixel intermediary. Feel free to use your member gallery or simply use the file attachment feature.

Thanks for continuing with the updates, Scott!

 

[Greg]

Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...

 

[ALLSKIING]

Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...

I think this is the first one of the year:blink:

 

[Greg]

The MRG Weather Blog supports a lot of what Scott says:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

It's coming, folks!

 

[nelsapbm]

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

 

[Grassi21]

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

I'm thinking the same thing...

 

[JimG.]

Hey hey, welcome aboard powderfreak!

Scott does a great job with his forecasts...I think mostly because he forecasts for his own skiing.

Really glad to see you here.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

Knew I was going to be sick on wednesday sometime back in Dec.. ;-)

 

[thetrailboss]

FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!!

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!!

Wouldn't it be nice if this was one of those deals where they forcast a foot, but the storm moves slower then they thought and we get a monster 2 feet + pounding? I know I'm being greedy, but just sayin.

 

[klrskiah]

wow, fantastic post powderfreak, thanks for sharing!

hmm after looking at the latest models im a little worried because im going to be at sugarloaf monday, it looks like things are going to come in waves, and most of the precip mainly stays south of sugarloaf until monday night?? or maybe i have no idea what im talking about! thoughts...

 

[Greg]

Wouldn't it be nice if this was one of those deals where they forcast a foot, but the storm moves slower then they thought and we get a monster 2 feet + pounding? I know I'm being greedy, but just sayin.

Sheesh, HPD. Just be happy it's white and not wet!

 

[skicone]

Outstanding post, Powderfreak. Keep up the good work.

 

[Justin10]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray Me
352 Pm Est Fri Jan 12 2007

...a Wintry Mix Of Precipitation Is Expected Sunday And
Monday...

A Cold Front Will Cross Maine And New Hampshire On Saturday...and
Then Stall Over Southern New England Saturday Night. A Wave Of Low
Pressure Will Move East Along This Front On Sunday...briefly
Lifting It North Into Southern Maine And New Hampshire. This Area
Of Low Pressure Pressure Will Likely Produce Intermittent Light
Precipitation On Sunday. Temperatures Will Be Around The Freezing
Mark Across Southern New Hampshire And Southwestern Maine...where
The Precipitation Could Fall As Freezing Rain...rain Or Snow.
Across The Mountains...snow Showers Are Expected For Sunday Afternoon.

Sunday Night...colder Air Will Drop South Into Northern New
England...and Any Mixed Precipitation Will Change To Snow
Overnight...although A Snow And Sleet Mix Is Possible Along The
Coast. The Snow Will Continue Through Monday Night...with The
Greatest Snowfall Accumulations Expected Across Southern New
Hampshire...southwestern Maine And The Mid Coast...where Six
Inches Or More Of Snow Is Possible. Snowfall Totals Will Likely
Decrease As You Head North Across Maine And New Hampshire...with
Only A Few Inches Expected In The Mountains.

NWS @ Gray, ME - Following the trend of the storm heading south
NWS @ Burlington, VT - Still expecting northern areas to get heavy snows

 

[SkiDog]

EXCUSE ME MODS.....AHEM.......I think with the bad weather we've been experiencing this winter we should refrain from "storm discussion" threads as they only have the potential to piss off Ullr.

I suggest for the remainder of the current season we put a "ban" on "storm discussion" threads...

Thank you for your anticipated cooperation in this VERY sensitive matter...

;-)

M

 

[KingM]

Sheesh, HPD. Just be happy it's white and not wet!

Or worse, as we've seen over the last fifteen months, where they predict big snows and it turns out to be either nothing or NCP. This one is starting to look like the real deal. We should know for sure by tomorrow.

 

[Big Game]

Yep. Putting the snows on tomorrow.

 

[powderfreak]

wow, fantastic post powderfreak, thanks for sharing!

hmm after looking at the latest models im a little worried because im going to be at sugarloaf monday, it looks like things are going to come in waves, and most of the precip mainly stays south of sugarloaf until monday night?? or maybe i have no idea what im talking about! thoughts...

Still uncertainty in the models and one thing I've had in the back of my head is that the European model has been keeping the system further north than the American models this entire time. It has trended slightly further south than it was 2 days ago, but it keeps the axis of heaviest snows north of where the GFS and NAM have it. The Euro was correct on the Dec 26 bust of mine when I followed the American models fully, and I really don't think the GFS's current scenario makes sense with the limited precipitation to the north. I'm sticking with 6" all the way to the US/Canadian border at this time and I believe the uncertainty with the max snow zone possibly making a last minute move to the north is why BTV still thinks its entire area will receive heavy snow. Needless to say, the American models are the furthest south with this system so I cannot see it going further south than where they have it now.

I like a blend of the NAM and EURO which targets the heaviest snow across central NY, central VT, up through Sunday River. Sugarloaf, Jay Peak, Stowe and Smuggs will likely be on the northern side of the precip but remember, the air will be colder, there will be little to no mixing of precip types, and ratios will be higher. I do think we see an enhanced band north of the main precip zone, as we usually see in these events, and it often follows the -10C isotherm at 850mb. This is usually where the best snow growth zone is and if it comes together there's the chance that we have the main area of max snowfall run from say Gore Mountain, NY to Killington/Sugarbush region in VT, and across central NH...just north of that we have a drop off in snowfall but then north of that, we have a quasi-deformation band that enhances snowfall even though liquid equivalents are lower...north of that band (say just north of the Canadian border), snowfall amounts drop off drastically in a very small spatial distance.

Hope that makes sense, I'm going to have a final forecast out tomorrow afternoon or early evening...roughly 48 hours is what I like for a final forecast product but I'll be skiing at least through noon tomorrow. When I get back I'll put out the final product with accumulations map and all.

 

[billski]

oooh oooh

say, uh, boss, I'm not feeling so well. The weather doesn't look none too good for drivin'....
Well, I'll just lay low and drink a lot of fluids.
.....
tick
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tick
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tick
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tick
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Hello Bud? meet me at the market at 5AM? We gots a trip to do. Who's got the coffee? Shoot, I forgot to wax....



(well, I can't say this story has played out many times this year. at least not enuf for the boss to get suspicious.)

Disclaimer: my boss is a more rabid skier than I. Any excuse will suffice....