The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[tcharron]

Sort of a side note, but has anyone else noticed that the Burlington NWS office is more agressive in issuing statements, advisories, and watches etc. than the Gray, ME one? Right now most of vermont is under the winter storm watch, but NH is not. Not the first time it has happened. I can also remember the Dec. 26th storm where it happened. Not really a big deal, just something I seemed to notice recently. Anyone else realize that?

The NH office obviously ski, and have just plain given up, and are playing cards and 'Ski Resort Extreme'.

 

[JD]

Yes. I almost posted a "beware of the holiday weekend" message, but figured I would get heckled as some sort of left wing conspiracy nut. (even though I believe in said conspiracy in this case, I feel being labled as a nut is just going too far)

 

[TwinTips21]

They also haven't issued anything yet because they are further east meaning the storm is a little further out for them. Also the green mountain spine usually gets pounded more than NH and ME,.

 

[tcharron]

I'm hearing most of NH is ice and sleet, and not so much on the snow side.

 

[adamti91]

WTEN out of Albany has an outlook that leaves the Catskills right on the snow line. The ice and sleet on previous maps has seemed to turn to snow north of the Hudson Valley however.

 

[MarkC]

Looks like those of us in SNE and SNY are going to just have to take one for the team. At least NNE/ADKs will get some decent snow.

F*ck that. I have had it with this winter. ULLR you are offically on notice. You and me are going to have words pal. :uzi:

 

[adamti91]

I think the maps in the old posts update automatically, but I'll post the new ones in new posts so you don't have to scroll through the pages to find it. A new map through Sunday from WRGB out of Albany. No word on a Monday map yet, but I expect the snow and ice lines to both drop into the Hudson Valley.

 

[awf170]

I'm hearing most of NH is ice and sleet, and not so much on the snow side.

You're right. But the only part of NH that matter at all IMO is Cannon and Wildcat and they will get dumped on. Just kidding, I bet places like Crotched will get some sleet and mix monday morning but I got a feeling they will end up with about 6 inches. Tuesday is the day to go.

 

[adamti91]

Latest dopplar radar stills... the precipitation is moving in...

WRGB [Albany]:

This image updates every few minutes, so check back here to get the latest dopplar image.

AccuWeather.com is reporting a much more widespread snow area, but for sunday not monday. Good news!

 

[powderfreak]

SUNDAY MORNING THOUGHTS

Haven't seen Burlington's NWS Homepage look so nice in a while...
http://tinyurl.com/yl5c2b
And on that note, it looks like the Gray, ME NWS office is out to lunch and
I cannot figure out why they do not have winter storm watches up yet while
the Buffalo, Binghamton, Albany, and Burlington offices all have warnings up
already. I understand their reasoning in that they are unsure if the winter storm warning criteria will be met as this is a long duration event and I think its 7" in 12 hours or 9" in 24 hours to verify a warning. With that said, the precipitation tomorrow looks to snow at a good clip in NH and ME throughout the afternoon and well into the night. The National Headquarters and Hydro Prediction Center has the entire northern tier of New England and New York in a high risk for 4-8" of snow tomorrow, a moderate risk of 8-12", and a low risk of 12"+ and they are usually conservative. I just don't think those living or skiing in NH and ME are getting the right message by the NWS not issuing anything at this point (basically 24hrs pre-storm and its snowing now with the first wave); they should have at least thrown a Watch up and from there they can decide later if they want to upgrade to a warning or go with an advisory. It just doesn't jive with what surrounding offices have...BTV full on winter storm warnings, same with ALB, and south of GYX's area, BOX has issued Advisories for its southern NH and northern MA counties.

Just looks like GYX is out of the loop...don't be discouraged NH/ME skiers...considering most everyone else (myself included) feels areas adjacent to VT will see significant snow in the north, snow and sleet in the central region and sleet/freezing rain/rain in southern and coastal sections...mountains like Cannon, Wildcat, Sunday River, and Sugarloaf will not be left out. Here's the HPC Snow Graphic for tomorrow and you can see that region will fall in the same category with whatever happens across BTV's counties.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THIS MORNING:
Look for a general 1-3" today across the board, tapering off around 1pm
before the main storm moves in between 7am-10am tomorrow morning and
snowfall rates will quickly pick up and most areas north of Glens
Falls-Rutland-Lebanon should be averaging 1"/hr from late morning through
the afternoon with mod/light snowfall then persisting from 4pm-1am across
the Green Mountain spine. During the day tomorrow, I agree with the NWS
forecast of 4-8 falling by evening and then another 1-3" most lower
elevation spots but high res models indicate upslope/orographic snowfall
could add another 2-4" south of I-89 and 3-5" north of I-89 tomorrow night.

Some Discussion:
Our favorite government agency is calling for 8-10" of snow with "higher
amounts over the higher terrain." Yesterday's 12z NAM snowfall forecast was
likely over-done but was showing 6-10" in the greater Burlington area with a
bullseye of 15-18" along the Green Mountain Spine running from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak...with another area of that same maximum range in the vicinity of
Sugarloaf, ME. And after looking over last night's model data, total
precipitation amounts have steadily been increasing over northern Vermont
such as this sequence for Burlington (all snow):
NAM
18z...0.72" L.E.
00z...0.80" L.E.
06z...0.92" L.E.
GFS
18z...0.60" L.E.
00z...0.75" L.E.
06z...0.85" L.E.

One can see a trend here and now, as we are closing in, the American models
are amazingly close with total precip amounts per the BTV data and both show
all snow north of I-89 for 100% of the event.

Taken verbatim, at medium density or a 10:1 ratio that's 9" of snow in the
valley. The warm layer aloft between 5,000ft and 9,000ft only gets to -4C
at BTV with best lift in the atmosphere occurring with temps between -10C to
-15C which is close to where you want it for dendrite flakes. My only
concern is the -4C layer and I'm having trouble figuring out what our main
snowflake is going to be. The -4 is usually needles but higher up in the
clouds this thing should be producing some big dendrites. especially for the
last third of the storm as deeper cold air replaces the warm layer and when
liquid amounts might not be too great but we go from seeing a 12:1 ratio to
a 20< to 1 ratio fluff on Monday evening with wrap around.

With all this said, I think it would be best to say with a 12:1 ratio for
3/4ths of this event and then the final 1/4th bump ratios up to 20/25 to
1...additionally, I like the trend for more precip, especially snow now that
looks to become heavy at times on Monday from 7am-7pm, but will go with
probably around .6" L.E. in the CPV yielding the same 8-10" as the NWS
forecast...BUT in the MTNS...

The two main mountain data points the models extract data for are the
Morrisville-Stowe Airport and Montpelier-Barre Airport...the GFS and NAM
have both of those locations with 1.0-1.3" of L.E. which is a very healthy
snowfall at even 10 or 12 to 1 ratios. Looking into the mountains, I've got
one bullseye showing up right over the Sugarbush/MRG area at 1.52" predicted
and the entire Green Mountain spine from Addison County to the Canadian
border comes in at >1.25" L.E. when all is said and done; thus the 15-18"
some models predicted yesterday. Without seeing the true storm yet, I'm
going to stick with 6-12" as a forecast from Killington to Jay Peak and
across all of the Adirondacks, northern half of NH, and up through
Sugarloaf. However, if the latest multiple model runs are correct, those
numbers would need to be bumped upwards.

I would greatly appreciate any running snowfall totals if you are not out
skiing in the next two days...

-Scott


NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
424 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AFTER LIGHT SNOW TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT BEGINNING
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...SOME SLEET MAY
BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WHEN 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

 

[ajl50]

scott- just consitantly excellent coverage...thanks for all the hard work.
By the way- where was that lost ski area you checked out over the holidays- you posted about it but i couldn't figure out the directions- it was in the adk's right?

 

[adamti91]

New page, new dopplar from WRGB out of Albany:

Updates automatically. Precipitation is starting north, north-west of Albany, not sure if it's snow or not though.

 

[JD]

Snowing in Stowe....1"-2" down in town.

 

[KingM]

About the same in the MRV, as well. It was heavy for awhile, but right now it's a light, but steady snow.

 

[adamti91]

Monday map!!! Looking GREAT for the Adirondacks, and probably northern Vermont, not so much for Massachusetts or Catskills, but hopefully the higher altitudes will get some snow. [WTEN from Albany]

 

[TwinTips21]

Freezing raining at okemo. Not a god sign at all!!!!

 

[tcharron]

Freezing raining at okemo. Not a god sign at all!!!!

Down the road from Crotched, it's already got a think coating of ice. :-( Not too bad, groomers can easy convert it to something skiable, but who knows what will happen tonight.

 

[KingM]

I'm sorry about the southern resorts, but Sugarbush is already claiming 5" of snow and today is the light snow day. :beer:

 

[skibum9995]

Burke is also reporting 5" so far today.

 

[Striker678]

Looks like poor conditions all day monday for the Berkshires of MA, on weatherunderground