The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[klrskiah]

thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter, it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised, i sure hope the euro is right. the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out!:-? hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....

think lots of

 

[ajl50]

if tuesday = powerday then being stuck in hoboken = frozen turd.

 

[powderfreak]

thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter, it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised, i sure hope the euro is right. the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out!:-? hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....

think lots of

Yeah, man...take what you can get! That's the motto of this winter...heck, I dont even really care how much it snows, just as long as its not a 50F rain again. I'm more excited to have a winter storm just to track and forecast as this winter has been tough for skiers and riders, but us winter weather forecasters are also bored out of our minds; we wait all summer for the ability to forecast something more interesting than rain and so far we've got not much to go with. Its another reason why I think so many people (myself included) busted badly on the Dec26 storm because we all jumped the gun and were just too excited all around. This will be the real deal for someone.

-Scott

 

[Greg]

Thanks again for the continued updates, Scott!

 

[ctenidae]

NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.

 

[KingM]

For Southern NE Ctenidae? We're still showing all snow in the Mad River Valley, at least, although the high temp is about 30, so adding a few degrees as you went south would change this over, unfortunately.

We got some NCP last night and that damned green grass poked through again.

It's now snowing lightly, although it hasn't yet started to stick. I imagine it's sticking nicely on the mountain, though. Hopefully, we'll see white again by this evening.

 

[2knees]

NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.

huh?

TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
EXCEPT RUTLAND/WINDSOR PORTION. PROXIMITY OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
COULD LEAD TO SOME SLEET FORMATION...SO WENT WITH SNOW/SLEET MIX.

00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN TRYING TO RETURN THE SURFACE FRONT AND
RESULTING WARMER AIR AND MIXED PRECIP FURTHERN NORTH. HOWEVER
GFS...ENSEMBLES...AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. I
BELIEVE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS UNDERDONE BY THE
NAM...AND WILL ACT TO KEEP COLDER TEMPS AND STATIONARY FRONT
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH.

So it sleets in rutland at 600 feet but it sounds like even killington, which sits roughly at 2000 (bear base and above) should be primarily snow. And north of that, no mention of any ncp.

 

[adamti91]

Here's the latest from CBS 6 [WRGB] out of Albany for today through Sunday night. Doesn't look good for the Catskills or massachusetts, but northern Vermont and the Adirondacks look like they could benefit from this. Hopefully temp. outlooks will drop and the snow line will move south below Ulster county.

No map for Monday yet, but here's what CBS 6 meteorologist Mike Tamas has to say:

"Monday: A mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain throughout the region.
Precipitation could be heavy at times.
Significant snow and ice accumulations possible.
High: Near 30°"

You can check the map and forecast for updates here, and I will try to post updates as they come.

ABC 10 [WTEN], also out of Albany, has similar projections through Sunday afternoon:

You can see WTEN's weather page here.

Hopefully both stations will have maps for Monday up sometime today.

 

[ctenidae]

I was looking as far north as Lincoln, NH last night, and it looked like a mix of rain/snow, leaning more towards rain. They changed it overnight, though, to a much happier:

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TAP THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND BRING
SNOW DURING MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE MOST
PRECIPITATION TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW POSSIBLE...LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.

 

[Greg]

Looks like those of us in SNE and SNY are going to just have to take one for the team. At least NNE/ADKs will get some decent snow.

 

[adamti91]

No accumulation map updates, but this was just added to the WRGB weather page [out of Albany]:

"A pattern change is underway that will bring much colder air to the Northeast and a long period of wintry precipitation beginning late tonight and continuing at times through Tuesday morning. A cold front, accompanied by a period of rain into this morning, will settle south of New York and New England by by late afternoon. Cold air will initially filter in at the surface, while temperatures aloft remain mild, setting the stage for an icy mix of precipitation. A weak disturbance will ride along the front late tonight through early afternoon tomorrow bringing periods of mixed snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Slick travel conditions will likely result on Sunday, especially across the Adirondacks into Vermont where the precipitation mode will lean more towards all snow, as this disturbance moves through. After a break in the weather later tomorrow and early tomorrow night, a larger storm is expected to bring another round of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to the region, with a cooling atmosphere through the event and a changeover to all snow region wide Monday night into Tuesday morning as the storm moves away. Significant snow and/or ice accumulations appear possible with the storm on Monday and Monday night likely causing hazardous travel throughout the Northeast.. "

I'll try to post new accumulation maps as soon as they are available from various television stations.

 

[KingM]

What does *significant* mean anyway? Several inches? A couple of feet. It's all good, of course, but a big dump followed by long-term cold should mean we're off and running for a good, long stretch. Six inches, however, ain't gonna open Castle Rock

 

[zamboniman]

Winter Cold is Here....

In Ontario boyz, it went from being 6 degrees Celsius yesterday to -10 today, the resorts are making snow like crazy, they are calling for a storm tonight, and tomorrow. SO hopefully you guys get it this week, it definitly feels like winter up here today, i havent been out once, got this week off and hoping to get to try out the new boards i bought back in November.

Hope you guys freeze your asses off and get dumped on.

Good Luck

Zamboniman out.

 

[loafer89]

Well so far it looks like the front went through Southern/Central Vermont with mostly light rain as reported by Mount Snow and the morning temperatures at Okemo at 7am where base: 46F and summit:39F and now the temperature is falling.

NOAA is forcasting a long duration light snow event with no more than 9" in any 24 hour period for tommorow night/monday:

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT...BUT DON`T THINK
WE`LL EXCEED THE 9 INCHES IN 24 HOURS TO QUALIFY FOR A WATCH.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY IN UPCOMING SHIFTS AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES THE 1ST/2ND PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

We are heading up to Okemo on sunday and the decision to stay for the night has not yet been made.

 

[klrskiah]

Saturday, January 13, 2007
8-15 inches of snow and a little sleet from MLK storm

MLK storm details
Like a classic sibling rivalry, the European and American models continue to duke it out over the MLK storm. My opinion on the outcome hasn't changed much, just fine tuned a bit. I am not going to split the difference between the models but instead side more with the European which has more support now from the higher resolution NAM as of late this morning. The track of the surface storm in the above mentioned scenario would be from southern Illinois through extreme northern Pennsylvania and finally across southern New England to the coast. This would place much of central and northern Vermont in the heart of the QPF (geek speak term for moisture) and would involve healthy amounts of snow although precipitation might change to or mix with sleet later in the day Monday. Specifically speaking, I think anywhere between 1-3 inches falls by Monday morning followed by 3-6 inches of snow and sleet during the day Monday and then 4-6 inches of mostly snow Monday night. This would leave us with a grand total of 8-15 inches of snow and sleet before it turns much colder Tuesday. The American model suggests that all of the precipitation falls as snow only that there is is not as much. This solution assumes a much weaker system which tracks much further south which I don't agree with since I think the model is under-phasing the storm with the incoming polar branch of jet stream.

Champlain powder Tuesday Night
Hard to predict amounts but there does appear to be an extended period of time Tuesday night when winds are directed over the longer fetch of Lake Champlain to Stark Mountain yielding additional powder. Temps will be well below zero Wednesday morning but there will be fresh snow to ski at MRG.

Long Range
No changes right now but I will have a full update tomorrow evening when hopefully we can shed some more light on the weekend of the 20th and 21st.

 

[kingslug]

Well, all this means to me is no skiing this weekend. Freezing rain and MLK traffic do not mix well. Sux living on Long Island. But I amm booking a trip to Mount Snow for next weekend. Can't beat $80.00 bus and lift ticket.

 

[TwinTips21]

Scott, whats the 12z model runs telling you at this point? Another 2 hours and 45 minutes until the 18z!

 

[JD]

STOWEked!

 

[TwinTips21]

Winter Storm Watches have been in effect, Forgot to post it earlier but I am now.

 

[Justin10]

Winter Storm Watches have been in effect, Forgot to post it earlier but I am now.

Sort of a side note, but has anyone else noticed that the Burlington NWS office is more agressive in issuing statements, advisories, and watches etc. than the Gray, ME one? Right now most of vermont is under the winter storm watch, but NH is not. Not the first time it has happened. I can also remember the Dec. 26th storm where it happened. Not really a big deal, just something I seemed to notice recently. Anyone else realize that?