The Official 1/18 Storm Discussion Thread

[Greg]

The GFS model has been consistently showing another coastal event for next Friday the past few days. Speculate here!

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I'm hoping it isn't dumping the morning of the 19th because that's when my flight for Jackson Hole leaves..

 

[loafer89]

All of the weather forecast that I have seen for Maine have basically dropped any mention of the snow that they had in the forecast for friday as late as last night.

 

[Greg]

All of the weather forecast that I have seen for Maine have basically dropped any mention of the snow that they had in the forecast for friday as late as last night.

Inch of precip on Friday for Bangor according to the latest GFS:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=ME&stn=KBGR&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Don't concern yourself with the rain designation.

 

[ajl50]

I'm hoping it isn't dumping the morning of the 19th because that's when my flight for Jackson Hole leaves..

From where?
Philly?
You'll be fine
In this weather pattern I feel like philly will just get a lot of rain this year. There is just too much warm ocean water and southeastern warmth to give philly a big snow storm.

 

[loafer89]

Inch of precip on Friday for Bangor according to the latest GFS:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=ME&stn=KBGR&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Don't concern yourself with the rain designation.

I should have clarafied myself better, I meant they where dropping the idea of a storm period.

Actually I heard that Sugarloaf/Saddleback made it through the storm of yesterday fairly well with 3-4" of snow/sleet followed by heavy icing.

Whatever happens from here on should be a benefit especially with colder temperatures for snowmaking.

 

[bvibert]

I didn't actually read anything in this thread. Just the title is making me just a little exited!

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

From where?
Philly?
You'll be fine
In this weather pattern I feel like philly will just get a lot of rain this year. There is just too much warm ocean water and southeastern warmth to give philly a big snow storm.

From Allentown

 

[ajl50]

allentown?
What's the route? On what airline...wow...never would have guessed that you could even fly out of allentown anywhere.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

allentown?
What's the route? On what airline...wow...never would have guessed that you could even fly out of allentown anywhere.

Allentown to Chicago to Jackson Hole..it's 90 bucks more than from Philly but I would have spent about that much on parking and since I only live 5 miles from the A-town airport..I my Dad is giving me a ride..

 

[Greg]

What?!

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MV OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MDLS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRNT
AND COASTL LOW FOR NEXT WINTER STORM LATE THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY.
FRNT WILL PUSH E ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY/THURS NGT. SFC MOISTURE/QPF LIMITED SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF
THIS...SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.
REINFORCING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM COASTL SYSTEM WILL SURGE INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NGT INTO FRIDAY. THIS INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUM SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY...W/ LOW TRACK CURRENTLY THRU
SE NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR S
AND E VT ZONES ON FRI INTO THE EVENING HRS. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
LATE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL ACCUM FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF VT
BFR TAPERING OFF TO -SW SATURDAY.

Burlington NWS.

 

[billski]

What?!



Burlington NWS.

yup=yup=yippeee....just like powderhound anticipated. set your watches folks. by end of this week we'll all be smiling again and by end of month we'll all be exhausted!

 

[loafer89]

Hopefully it does track a bit further inland like they think it might. I'll take rain at home if it means Western Maine gets serious snow.

 

[loafer89]

Cheryl Lemke was on the Weather Channel before commenting on what a nice January thaw the eastern part of the U.S was enjoying up until a few days ago.

Nice January thaw?

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

:angry::angry::-x:smash::flame::uzi:

 

[Greg]

Cheryl Lemke was on the Weather Channel before commenting on what a nice January thaw the eastern part of the U.S was enjoying up until a few days ago.

Nice January thaw?

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

:angry::angry::-x:smash::flame::uzi:

TWC and weather.com is the joke of weather forecasting. There was a time I would spend hours watching the Weather Channel. Now I can hardly stomach it at all. Kind of like MTV in the 80's/early 90's compared to today.

 

[billski]

TWC and weather.com is the joke of weather forecasting. There was a time I would spend hours watching the Weather Channel. Now I can hardly stomach it at all. Kind of like MTV in the 80's/early 90's compared to today.

many people spin the channels in search of the worst-sounding forecast they can find.
Wouldn't it be funny to have a skier as a weatherman/woman? S/he wouldn't last two shows before being booted. It's not what people want to hear! And to think they have these invincible SUVs equipped for off-road, that sit in the heated garage while it snows....
And in NNY, NVT, NNH, ME, life goes on, people go to work, school is in session...

 

[gladerider]

heading up to Okemo on Friday for the weekend. i hope it dumps...
snow dancing...

 

[KingM]

many people spin the channels in search of the worst-sounding forecast they can find.
Wouldn't it be funny to have a skier as a weatherman/woman? S/he wouldn't last two shows before being booted. It's not what people want to hear! And to think they have these invincible SUVs equipped for off-road, that sit in the heated garage while it snows....
And in NNY, NVT, NNH, ME, life goes on, people go to work, school is in session...

What kills me is when the local forecasters are all grins as they talk about "the wonderful weather this week" meaning blowtorch. Don't they know what powers the economy up here? No Vermonter in his right mind wants warm weather in January.

 

[Zand]

Wouldn't it be funny to have a skier as a weatherman/woman?

Jim Cantore. The only good meteorologist left on TWC. After John Hope died and Paul Kocin left, it fell apart.

 

[Greg]

Latest Burlington NWS Discussion:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 310 PM EST MONDAY...MUCH OF THE CWA THRU A GD PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED WILL SEE SOME WINTRY WX. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURS NGT
INTO FRIDAY AS MDLS BRING POTENT SYSTEM TO THE REGION. SOME MDL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO LOW PLACEMNT OVER PAST COUPLE DAYS...W/ GFS
MORE AGRESSIVE W/ COASTL LOW. THIS WILL PUT BULK OF QPF FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS MORE OF
INLAND SFC LOW THAT DRAWS INT COPIOUS AMTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY THIS SCENARIO DOES FAVOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT ALSO THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO WARM AIR
ALOFT WORKING OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL MESH THE TWO MDLS AND
BRING SYSTEM IN FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THURS NGT
INTO FRIDAY AS COASTL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL
INCR CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUM...ESPECIALLY OVER SC VT...AS TEMPS FOR
NOW APPEAR CD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MDL
RUNS...SOME FINE TUNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ZONES TO POSSIBLY ACCT FOR WARM AIR INTRUSION...AND THUS GIVING
AREA SOME MIXED PRECIP(SLEET...ETC). SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRI NGT...ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH TO SWING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN FOR -SW...HIGHLIGHTING BEST CHANCE IN NORTHERN
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. OTHER ISSUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE CD ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR THAT FALLS
IN BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RUNS SHOW CORE OF AIR STAYS
JUST TO OUR NORTH FRI/SAT/SUN NITES...BUT WILL FILTER INTO AHEAD
OF MON RIDGE. 850 TEMPS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL -20 TO -30 C...BUT
WILL STILL MODIFY SOME BFR IT ARRIVES. SO WENT WITH GMOS TEMPS BUT
ADJUSTED DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.

Bears watching...