VAIL SUCKS

[deadheadskier]

I assume this is a rhetorical question but since I'm the Worst Brat on this forum, I'll take a stab at it. Vail's revenue is from season passes so Xmas holidays don't matter to their bottom line.... errrrrr.... I mean Rob Katz's bank account. The time from Xmas to NYD used to be one of the main revenue streams for ski areas. Not anymore. Corporations are unaccountable private tyrannies so they don't give a single F**K if the season gets off to a shitty start. Vail is in the $ making business first, ski business is secondary. It sucks for families and first time skiers but Vail is trying to wring every penny out of the sport while it can. They don't care about growing the sport, they only care about short term profits. That's why they have to settle class action lawsuits, charge $30 a day to park in the mud and charge titty bar prices for beer. "Excuse me, bartender, do i get a lap dance with this $15 beer?"

In the past, any time I skied before January was a plus. For me, ski season starts after NYD and goes through March and if I wanna get my 20+ days of skiing in this year, I better pray for snow.

Ya got it. No incentive to perform.

I bet the data people would tell you that while not the only criteria, the number one criteria in Joe Skier's pass selection process is location. So, Vail simply banks on the fact that they have mini monopolies all over the country and folks will let their piss poor performance slide because alternative choices aren't as convenient.

As an example, if there was no Indy Pass, I would have ever left Epic because save for Loon, iKon properties in the Northeast aren't convenient for me. I vastly prefer their mountains and how they perform, but I'm not down with the number of overnights I'd need to do to make the pass work for my family. Indy and Epic mountains are convenient though. I still bought a couple of Epic day passes and intend to moving forward to use on prime natural snow days. However, I much prefer giving my money to Gunstock plus Indy because I feel those properties care a lot more about my business than Vail does.

But, I'm fully in the minority of Vail's customer base. There are no where near enough defectors like me to hurt their bottom line enough for them to consider change.

 

[zyk]

Ya got it. No incentive to perform.

I bet the data people would tell you that while not the only criteria, the number one criteria in Joe Skier's pass selection process is location. So, Vail simply banks on the fact that they have mini monopolies all over the country and folks will let their piss poor performance slide because alternative choices aren't as convenient.

As an example, if there was no Indy Pass, I would have ever left Epic because save for Loon, iKon properties in the Northeast aren't convenient for me. I vastly prefer their mountains and how they perform, but I'm not down with the number of overnights I'd need to do to make the pass work for my family. Indy and Epic mountains are convenient though. I still bought a couple of Epic day passes and intend to moving forward to use on prime natural snow days. However, I much prefer giving my money to Gunstock plus Indy because I feel those properties care a lot more about my business than Vail does.

But, I'm fully in the minority of Vail's customer base. There are no where near enough defectors like me to hurt their bottom line enough for them to consider change.

Agreed. I'm a defector as well and happy. But I know people who live 10 minutes from their home mountain and won't change. I probably wouldn't either. I would just complain all the time.

So how does this business model play out? Without more acquisitions how does Vail increase pass sales?

 

[Smellytele]

Agreed. I'm a defector as well and happy. But I know people who live 10 minutes from their home mountain and won't change. I probably wouldn't either. I would just complain all the time.

So how does this business model play out? Without more acquisitions how does Vail increase pass sales?

The last question is the only question...
Vail becomes Fail.

 

[deadheadskier]

In thinking about this a bit further in regards to New Hampshire and perhaps some other locations with convenience being the dominant factor in pass purchasing decisions, Vail only tries hard to compete where they have to or risk losing business. Pennsylvania is probably similar.

There is no real threat to Vail in NH. Now if iKon picked up say Bretton Woods and Waterville, maybe it would force Vail to try harder at their NH properties. But as is, if people who are committed to primarily skiing NH because of convenience are forced to choose between Loon and a combination of Crotched, Sunapee, Attitash and Wildcat; the choice is pretty obvious even if Vail runs their NH mountains like crap.

Contrast that to VT where you have Stratton, Killington and Sugarbush vs Mt. Snow, Okemo and Stowe. Vail has to try harder in VT or they will lose business to iKon. Hence why you see far fewer complaints about Vail in VT. The ones you do see are concerning crowding and not piss poor snowmaking.

 

[Newpylong]

The other thing to ponder is how many of these decisions are actually being made in Broomfield and how many are being made in Bartlett/Gorham?

Is the snowmaking shitty because Vail has decided to not only split crews, but has made a conscience effort to send their Epic traffic to other properties until New Years by sandbagging? Or is the snowmaking shitty because local management is incompetent?

I think it could be a combination of the two. Last season Attitash had no staff mid-season to make snow, or push out said snow after it was made. I think I counted like 12 major trails that weren't touched. I am sure the list would be similar for Wildcat. Then, here we are this season and they just finished probably the most important lift to ever go into Attitash and there isn't enough snow to open it. To me these particular issues do not seem like something Broomfield would be particularly proud of. So maybe the budget is being pinched in some ways, but I think maybe of these things scream mis-management. Of course, it's on the mothership to make changes if this continues to be the case.

 

[Smellytele]

The other thing to ponder is how many of these decisions are actually being made in Broomfield and how many are being made in Bartlett/Gorham?

Is the snowmaking shitty because Vail has decided to not only split crews, but has made a conscience effort to send their Epic traffic to other properties until New Years by sandbagging? Or is the snowmaking shitty because local management is incompetent?

I think it could be a combination of the two. Last season Attitash had no staff mid-season to make snow, or push out said snow after it was made. I think I counted like 12 major trails that weren't touched. I am sure the list would be similar for Wildcat. Then, here we are this season and they just finished probably the most important lift to ever go into Attitash and there isn't enough snow to open it. To me these particular issues do not seem like something Broomfield would be particularly proud of. So maybe the budget is being pinched in some ways, but I think maybe of these things scream mis-management. Of course, it's on the mothership to make changes if this continues to be the case.

You mean the local management that used to be the head of food and beverage?

 

[deadheadskier]

Your saying perhaps promoting F&B managers to GMs might not be the best thing for MTN OPs? Haha

 

[snoseek]

I'm betting the budgets for the nh areas are tiny which is why when looking at an epic day pass the day rates are on par with Midwest ski hills and not Vermont. This all probably comes from corporate vs the local mgmt.

 

[thetrailboss]

Vail Corporate visits Wildcat after the holidays

 

[thetrailboss]

Why is this the case with a company that has the resources Vail does?

So if decision making is local, then it is purely incompetence at this point based on what I am hearing. I mean Vail would not be happy with the metrics--these are assets that need to generate a return. Especially considering the significant investments at Attitash in the last two years with those new lifts. As I have said before, the MWV, and Attitash in particular, used to be THE place to ski and ride with all the development in North Conway, etc. Now it has just stagnated while other places are moving forward.

If the decision making is in Broomfield, then this is a good example of how the interests of the shareholders (to maximize profits) conflicts with the customer base (the skiers and riders). If you think about it, why would Vail want to throw good money after bad with the terrible weather that is happening now? Kind of makes sense in some regards. They've already collected the pass proceeds, they need to minimize the bleading.

Assuming that is the case, it shows that a privately held entity that is not beholden to shareholders has more flexibility to take risk. Look at Boyne and what happened at Sunday River and Sugarloaf. They got on it--big time. Not just snowmaking, but making immediate repairs probably at a premium. Granted they had no real choice, but would Vail have taken longer considering the weather?

I haven't skied Park City in a while--at least 5 years or so. It was before EPIC really got bad. The product was not bad overall. Nice new lifts, decent snowmaking and grooming, improved facilities, etc. They made a lot of improvements a while back but other places here are catching up in terms of improvements while all I hear about PCMR is negative-lines, lines, lines, and no parking.

Perhaps Vail is trying to keep things steady and to give their shareholders and investors some return while taking a break from the aggressive expansion.

 

[ss20]

Vail stock ended the year down 11%. They gotta turn the ship or do something. They're really testing the "how do you become a millionaire in the ski industry? Start off as a billionaire" quote.

I really don't think they're going to last terribly long. All their growth was driven through acquisition. The MASSIVE price hikes and MASSIVE pass sales volumes of the last 5 years have done nothing for growth.

 

[thetrailboss]

Vail stock ended the year down 11%. They gotta turn the ship or do something. They're really testing the "how do you become a millionaire in the ski industry? Start off as a billionaire" quote.

Yeah, I should look at their financial reports.

I really don't think they're going to last terribly long. All their growth was driven through acquisition. The MASSIVE price hikes and MASSIVE pass sales volumes of the last 5 years have done nothing for growth.

We keep saying that and they keep going. What was the last big news about Vail this year? It got us talking here. They bought another resort in Switzerland. The acquisition likely was made, in part, to create more growth and to make the market think that everything is still a-ok.

 

[ss20]

Yeah, I should look at their financial reports.

We keep saying that and they keep going. What was the last big news about Vail this year? It got us talking here. They bought another resort in Switzerland. The acquisition likely was made, in part, to create more growth and to make the market think that everything is still a-ok.

I think a couple bad years back-to-back could be enough to sink the ship.

 

[thetrailboss]

I think a couple bad years back-to-back could be enough to sink the ship.

Well, the east coast is not doing so hot right now. Neither is Utah. Colorado has got some snow. But then again none of this matters as what really matters to them is their EPIC pass sales.

 

[cdskier]

Vail stock ended the year down 11%. They gotta turn the ship or do something. They're really testing the "how do you become a millionaire in the ski industry? Start off as a billionaire" quote.

I really don't think they're going to last terribly long. All their growth was driven through acquisition. The MASSIVE price hikes and MASSIVE pass sales volumes of the last 5 years have done nothing for growth.

Wasn't it just said that both pass sales and pass revenues were up this year? Surprising the stock was down that much if that was the case...but it could just be the timing of whenever that was officially announced vs something else right now (i.e. concerns about the impact of weather on revenue during a major holiday period, etc).

 

[deadheadskier]

As much as it would be spectacular to watch Vail implode and believe me, Id be at Walmart in an instant clearing the shelves of marshmallows; I just don't see it happening.

Hard to say why the stock is down. It was also hard to see why it peaked over $300 in August of 21. Maybe that was just optimism for pent up demand in business. We shall see how things perform after obviously poor performance to start the season really all over North America. I'm sure they sand bag a lot of pass revenue into this quarter with some funky accounting to smooth out the economic valleys of reality in a seasonal and weather dependent business.

 

[cdskier]

As much as it would be spectacular to watch Vail implode and believe me, Id be at Walmart in an instant clearing the shelves of marshmallows; I just don't see it happening.

Agreed...Vail isn't going to suddenly collapse (at least anytime soon).

 

[thetrailboss]

Oh boy…..

After person jumps from chairlift, his parents sue ski resort

PITTSBURGH – The parents of a young man injured at a ski resort when he dropped to the ground to escape a non-functioning chairlift, have sued the resort for the injuries he sustained as a result.

pennrecord.com

 

[chuckstah]

Wasn't it just said that both pass sales and pass revenues were up this year? Surprising the stock was down that much if that was the case...but it could just be the timing of whenever that was officially announced vs something else right now (i.e. concerns about the impact of weather on revenue during a major holiday period, etc).

They now count Epic day passes in the overall number sold. Revenue should be up a little bit with the 8 percent increase in pass price, and a few extra day passes sold. Not sure how long they can keep upping the price for a burger or a beer, but the top hasn't been reached yet I would think. The stock is still over bought IMO. I think it has room to fall.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I know people who live 10 minutes from their home mountain and won't change. I probably wouldn't either. I would just complain all the time.

I think I'll probably go down this path at somepoint using everyone else here as a guide.

So how does this business model play out? Without more acquisitions how does Vail increase pass sales?

Years ago I wrote a post about how this will all play out, using my experience following other rollup companies (which is essentially Vail's business strategy) as a proxy. I think it's playing out pretty close to how I envisioned. Namely that you'd see price increases across the board (this happened with lessons, food, lift tickets, pretty much everything) and new ancillary expenses that we couldnt predict, but will occur (parking is probaby the best example so far, and a big money-maker).

In terms of new aquisitions, it gets harder & harder because the low-hanging fruit's already been plucked & you now have Alterra as an aquisitive competitor. The odds are this increases the chance for making a "mistake" & overpaying for something or paying too much for a lower-quality asset. Higher interest rates cant help either. I think one of the next logical shoes to drop is more substantial increases in EPIC pass pricing than what we've seen. Expense cuts in all sorts of things probably follow, and who knows how that manifests (lower quality food ingredients, fewer staff members, less snowmaking, delaying upgrades, etc.). Layoffs in Broomfield are probably a safe bet too.