VAIL SUCKS

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

There is no real threat to Vail in NH. Now if iKon picked up say Bretton Woods and Waterville, maybe it would force Vail to try harder at their NH properties. But as is, if people who are committed to primarily skiing NH because of convenience are forced to choose between Loon and a combination of Crotched, Sunapee, Attitash and Wildcat; the choice is pretty obvious even if Vail runs their NH mountains like crap.

Contrast that to VT where you have Stratton, Killington and Sugarbush vs Mt. Snow, Okemo and Stowe. Vail has to try harder in VT or they will lose business to iKon. Hence why you see far fewer complaints about Vail in VT. The ones you do see are concerning crowding and not piss poor snowmaking.

I don't think it makes sense viewing NH and VT as discrete markets. There is more distance between Stowe and Snow or between Wildcat and Crotched than there is between Snow and Crotched for example. I think driving time matters to more people than whether or not a drive crosses a river.

 

[joshua segal]

Memories are short: What sunk ASC was not their year-to-year profitability. They were profitable until they had to pay the heavy junk-bond debt servicing in the 20% per annum range. MTN is not in that position.

Short-term investors tend to over-react quarterly based on whether the company made its projected profit or not. The stock is paying a dividend of $8.24 per year (about 3.5%).

MTN (Vail) YTD price for the last 52 weeks has been between $205 and $266 with its current price around $214. Perhaps the next quarter will be bad and it will go down, but for now, it's not something over which most MTN stockholders would lose sleep.

Even in the last year of ASC, Killington provided their standard long seasons well into May. (Only real difference: since the area was sold, they didn't give away a free day ticket for next season for participating in the May Day race.)

While I can't speak for all Vail owned areas, even in New England, Crotched Mountain had its earliest opening in the 21st century: Dec. 1. My friends at Stowe and Okemo report normal early season operations, both opening in mid-November. This is not consistent with some of the recent claims on this thread that Vail is "taking the Epic Pass money and running".

The henny-penny "sky is falling" evidence is just not there.

 

[Newpylong]

You're mentioning properties in Vermont (plus Crotched) and neglecting to mention the two in NH that continue to be the crux of the matter. Taking Vail (and capital expenditures) out of the equation, if one saw how these two properties were being run you would question if management had ever seen a ski area before let alone worked at one. We're trying to figure out if this mis-management is an intentional systemic issue or organic.

I think you can throw Hunter into the same boat. Word from locals is that the Slutzkys would be rolling in their graves.

 

[AdironRider]

Wildcat has never had robust snowmaking. That argument keeps getting floated out and it just isn’t true. They didn’t have snowmaking to the summit several times during Peak ownership as well as prior ownership because their jerry rigged system couldn’t hang. I’ve also skied several closing days at Wildcat in the second week of April.

For some reason this board thinks Wildcat and Attitash are somehow in the same league as Killington or Mt Snow and that has never been, nor ever will be the case. Both are mid tier mountains at best and the vocal complainers here are comparing them to the premier outfits on the East Coast.

Wildcat Mountain History - New Hampshire - NewEnglandSkiHistory.com

Look at that history. There are plenty of mi April closings dating back to the 80s. Wildcat also averages well under 100k skier visits per year. Those are Burke Mountain numbers, not Mt Snow numbers.

 

[Newpylong]

You're putting words in people's mouths and your assessment of Wildcat's snowmaking is partially incorrect.

No one is comparing Wildcat and Attitash to top tier resorts. The Upper Mountain system at Wildcat froze once due to a booster failure and the next season the booster station was replaced along with all of the pipe on Polecat, Lynx and Catapult. There were many years following that where Wildcat was in the running for first to open. Robust system? No, but if you think the snowmaking is anything resembling what it was under Peaks then I'm at a loss for words. One of my best friends ran that system the last year for Heon and (he moved on) but is at a loss for words as to what's going on there now.

Again, we're past the "if" part and talking about why this is the case.

 

[AdironRider]

Jesus Christ, literally the post before mine compares early season operations of Wildcat and Attitash to Stowe and Okemo. Same for the last five pages.

Look at the history I posted. From 2004-2012 they averaged a December opening, typically the second week, including a December 18th opening in 2012. You are the one projecting revisionist history here. Since then its been Thanksgiving outside of 2019 (where all the majors were open then as well). Guess when they opened this year, Thanksgiving.

By the way, compare the opening dates to Mt. Snow (as just one example, you can substitute plenty of others). I'll give you one guess who opened earlier historically and it isn't Wildcat.

You also paid twice as much for a season pass for those December opening dates.

 

[zyk]

You're mentioning properties in Vermont (plus Crotched) and neglecting to mention the two in NH that continue to be the crux of the matter. Taking Vail (and capital expenditures) out of the equation, if one saw how these two properties were being run you would question if management had ever seen a ski area before let alone worked at one. We're trying to figure out if this mis-management is an intentional systemic issue or organic.

I think you can throw Hunter into the same boat. Word from locals is that the Slutzkys would be rolling in their graves.

Regarding Hunter... I was a regular from the tail end of the Slutzky reign ( awesome), through Peak (downhill), into the first Vail year ( downhill faster). Cost cutting or incompetence take your pick. I have no other ideas.

 

[machski]

Jesus Christ, literally the post before mine compares early season operations of Wildcat and Attitash to Stowe and Okemo. Same for the last five pages.

Look at the history I posted. From 2004-2012 they averaged a December opening, typically the second week, including a December 18th opening in 2012. You are the one projecting revisionist history here. Since then its been Thanksgiving outside of 2019 (where all the majors were open then as well). Guess when they opened this year, Thanksgiving.

By the way, compare the opening dates to Mt. Snow (as just one example, you can substitute plenty of others). I'll give you one guess who opened earlier historically and it isn't Wildcat.

You also paid twice as much for a season pass for those December opening dates.

Yes, it was compared but not as apples to apples. Cat/Tash early snowmaking push was compared to Stowe/Okemo because of both pairs direct Alterra competition. Cat/Tash has no fully owned nearby Alterra competition potentially challenging for pass sales, unlike Stowe/Okemo with Sugarbush/Stratton. No one is saying Wildcat's system is built out of on expand rapidly like a big top tier resort, but they have done more with their system pre-Vail to have more options open even in thin years. Attitash has even less excuse. LBO built that place and a making system up, Peaks added their fangun blend to it and that place used to run hard and with the bigger NH resorts (Loon/BW) for terrain open early. Sinc Vail, or so much. And I will grant the Mountaineer was a big project for them, required Vail to fly in lift mechanics from other Vail properties to finish that. But given all that, mountain management couldn't figure out a plan to make snow early enough to ensure coverage for a targeted opening on the Holiday week. Meanwhile Loon at much lower elevations will have zero problem opening Timbertown today with multiple runs open in that Pod. This is the relevance of the comparison offered.

 

[AdironRider]

Attitash has historically never hung with Loon or Bretton Woods. Opening days consistently the first week of December, usually 2-3 weeks later than BW and 1-2 weeks after Loon.

Attitash Mountain Resort History - New Hampshire - NewEnglandSkiHistory.com

Bretton Woods History - New Hampshire - NewEnglandSkiHistory.com

Loon Mountain Resort History - New Hampshire - NewEnglandSkiHistory.com

This thread is driven by a few people who would prefer Wildcat and Attitash punch above their weight class because it would be more convenient for them to ski there, but the reality is Wildcat and Attitash have never been that product, despite wishful thinking or revisionist history.

 

[BodeMiller1]

It would be nice to see a map of New England ski areas with the hills colored to show which is owned by what holding company.
Large corporations can make themselves look better by acquiring new businesses, but you can't buy healthy business and run them into the ground.
Banks can call loans if they believe a company is not going to be able to pay loans in the future. If banks or whoever pulls the credit lines the borrower seeks other sources; at higher rates, terms, etc
This is a sinario they fear...

 

[BodeMiller1]

I've skied Wildcat for 35 or 40 years. Just because they get a ton of snow in an average year doesn't mean they didn't have the throw weight in Thier snow making system to refresh trails.
Why would an apple orchard install pumps to get rid of water from a rainy season? They wouldn't.
Wildcat is about as good as it gets when it's right. For anyone to buy the mountain and let it just sit there while others are blowing by them ramping up for the season is a poor business choice.
Consumers have long memories, skiers are fanatical consumers.

 

[deadheadskier]

I don't think it makes sense viewing NH and VT as discrete markets. There is more distance between Stowe and Snow or between Wildcat and Crotched than there is between Snow and Crotched for example. I think driving time matters to more people than whether or not a drive crosses a river.

Well to expand upon the thought

Stowe has to be competitive with Sugarbush

Killington with Okemo

Snow with Stratton.

In NH, Vail out competes iKon 4 to 1. They can do the bare minimum at their 4 areas and as long as it's priced right, people who target NH are going to still choose Epic over iKon. I'm mainly thinking of people like me in the Southern NH or metro Boston. Day trippers. Few from these areas day trip to VT with regularity.

My overall point is that Vail has far more competition from their only real rival in Vermont than they do in the NH market. Same goes for Pennsylvania .

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

Well to expand upon the thought

Stowe has to be competitive with Sugarbush

Killington with Okemo

Snow with Stratton.

In NH, Vail out competes iKon 4 to 1. They can do the bare minimum at their 4 areas and as long as it's priced right, people who target NH are going to still choose Epic over iKon. I'm mainly thinking of people like me in the Southern NH or metro Boston. Day trippers. Few from these areas day trip to VT with regularity.

My overall point is that Vail has far more competition from their only real rival in Vermont than they do in the NH market. Same goes for Pennsylvania .

I agree any entity tries more in a competitive situation, just not that the VT/NH border is all that significant in separating markets. Coming from NJ I have gone to every Epic Mt in VT, NH, NY and 5 of the PA ones.

 

[cdskier]

They now count Epic day passes in the overall number sold. Revenue should be up a little bit with the 8 percent increase in pass price, and a few extra day passes sold. Not sure how long they can keep upping the price for a burger or a beer, but the top hasn't been reached yet I would think. The stock is still over bought IMO. I think it has room to fall.

Yea...I know they count the day passes which is definitely inflating their pass sales numbers. Not sure if shareholders are paying close enough attention to realize or understand that. I haven't cared enough to look lately to see if they broke down the pass sales at all in any of their announcements or presentations or if they just report the one overall number.

I think BG's assessment of what will happen is likely pretty accurate...but it will take some time for that to all play out.

 

[thebigo]

Crotched Mountain had its earliest opening in the 21st century: Dec. 1.

I have seen this claim multiple places but published data does not support it. Do you have data that contradicts NESH?

If the point is that 2023 crotched opening corresponded with their closest competition, ragged and pats, that does appear to be correct.

As for wildcat, peak resorts got lynx open top to bottom on October 27 their final year of ownership. A feat that vail seemingly struggles to pull off for Christmas many years.

 

[AdironRider]

If the point is that 2023 crotched opening corresponded with their closest competition, ragged and pats, that does appear to be correct.

As for wildcat, peak resorts got lynx open top to bottom on October 27 their final year of ownership. A feat that vail seemingly struggles to pull off for Christmas many years.

There was significant October snowfall that year allowing most mountains to open early and with decent terrain offerings. That was never the normal operating plan.

 

[4aprice]

I guess no one seems to think the competition to "Atticat" from Ikon includes Sunday River just over the boarder. My hope is they get their act together and take care of Wildcat which I consider 1 of the top 3 ski areas in New Hampshire. I haven't been there in a while so I have no experience with current conditions there but it doesn't make sense that they would have bought it to run it in to the ground. Does anyone know if they have a master plan or schedule to make improvements there and what they might be?

 

[Newpylong]

I have seen this claim multiple places but published data does not support it. Do you have data that contradicts NESH?

If the point is that 2023 crotched opening corresponded with their closest competition, ragged and pats, that does appear to be correct.

As for wildcat, peak resorts got lynx open top to bottom on October 27 their final year of ownership. A feat that vail seemingly struggles to pull off for Christmas many years.

JS also claimed this on NELSAP and was subsequently shown the earlier opening dates. I believe his point was that this year they opened on 12/1 and did not close mid-week after that. While that certainly may be true, IMHO opening is opening and this year was factually not their earliest.

 

[Newpylong]

There was significant October snowfall that year allowing most mountains to open early and with decent terrain offerings. That was never the normal operating plan.

Something that would be more pertinent (but difficult to compare year over year) is the actual % of terrain open by z x y dates. That would really hammer home the lack of effort currently being undertaken at these 2 properties.

 

[zyk]

Something that would be more pertinent (but difficult to compare year over year) is the actual % of terrain open by z x y dates. That would really hammer home the lack of effort currently being undertaken at these 2 properties.

Also the need to incorporate variables. This year, first week of December, a large percentage of Wildcat was open. This was on natural snow. It didn't last and shouldn't be considered regarding how well they did or did not do. Mother Nature made that call.