VAIL SUCKS

[2Planker]

Well lets start with basically every family for one. I only have one kid, and his schedule is more booked out than mine and he doesn't even have a job.

I would argue strongly against your golf example also, where I have had to have a tee time every time I've played (setting aside the exclusivity of the best courses requiring a membership, which doesn't help your argument either).

Just spent a week golfing in Scotland and many places

They might need to start selling. Maybe the dark cloud over NH will lift soon

They've had 2 legit offers for the Cat.....

 

[ss20]

Every customer facing manager I know claims the consumer is very well trained to pre-buy at this point. This notion of the walk up customer being any sort of real driver of skier visits (and this isn't unique to skiing either) is pretty outdated.

I mean my wife and kid had to make advance purchases for Santa's Village tickets for their trip today. In my lifetime I haven't been to a single concert where I didn't buy in advance. Same for sports tickets. It is not hard and most people actually prefer to just buy a ticket from their couch on their phone rather than wait in some line the day of when you are just eager to get in and start having fun. About the only thing I actually buy day of currently is a movie ticket, and even then, its like 50/50 prebuy for me.

In terms of the dividend yield, I suspect the 5% yield will be tough to maintain. That said, the entire outdoor industry had ridiculous ride over Covid. In 2021 outdoor pursuits were the only thing people were allowed to do really (in a quasi normal fashion) given Covid restrictions and no one could say with any certainty that wouldn't be a long term development. So I think the stock price had a little irrational exuberance behind it. Ultimately revenue was still up for Vail regardless so until that starts dropping, dividend should remain.

Yes but a skiing day trip has always been a last minute, plan it when the snow flies kinda thing. You can't have that be the industry standard and then double your walk up rate over the course of 5 years. They've alienated literally that entire market.

 

[doublediamond]

This notion of the walk up customer being any sort of real driver of skier visits (and this isn't unique to skiing either) is pretty outdated.

Absolutely 100% flat out incorrect.

A small southern NE area paid for a new carpet with CASH from one day of ticket sales after a well-timed holiday week snowstorm recently.

 

[urungus]

from NSAA press release at end of 2023-34 season:

Season Pass Visitation Remains Strong
Season passes remain the primary access product used by skiers and riders for the fifth consecutive season. Season pass holders made up 50% of visits nationally, with standard day or multi-day lift tickets claiming 31% of visits. The balance is claimed by frequency products (showing a 3 ppt increase this season), off-duty employees, complimentary products, etc.

source:

U.S. ski industry celebrates resilient season

mailchi.mp

 

[urungus]

What’s a “frequency product” ?

 

[ss20]

What’s a “frequency product” ?

My ASSumption- that is likely what they call the various programs that used to be more popular in the day where you'd buy a frequent skier card for $100, then it'd give you 30% off weekend tickets, half off midweek tickets, and bill direct to your card on file. Something we actually still have at Alta, but largely removed from the industry.

 

[doublediamond]

Who compiled those numbers? Vail claims their Epic Day Pass is a season pass product but in reality it isn't - it's a pre-purchased day ticket pack.

(Edited phraseology)

 

[crystalmountainskier]

Who compiled those numbers? Vail claims their Epic Day Pass is a season pass product but in reality it isn't - it's a pre-purchased day ticket pack.

(Edited phraseology)

I believe NSAA counts Epic Day Pass as a frequency product.

 

[urungus]

Who compiled those numbers?

“The National Ski Areas Association is the trade association for ski area owners and operators. It represents over 300 alpine resorts that account for more than 90% of the skier/snowboarder visits nationwide.”

About

www.nsaa.org

 

[Boxtop Willie]

“The National Ski Areas Association is the trade association for ski area owners and operators. It represents over 300 alpine resorts that account for more than 90% of the skier/snowboarder visits nationwide.”

About

www.nsaa.org

Is the Sugarbush Quad Pack a "frequency" product?

 

[BenedictGomez]

HI Rob how's your bottom line now that #MTN is EPICALLY down 50%??

As I noted here prior, the CEOs of roll-up strategy expansion companies typically leave before things go to s**t. They know. They depart & the fall-guy (or girl) takes the blame, thus leaving their business reputation intact. He's no dummy this Katz fellow.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Vail claims their Epic Day Pass is a season pass product but in reality it isn't

It is wholly illogical, frustrating from a modeling perspective because they wont publish the break-outs, and (IMHO) highly likely intentionally done precisely as such to literally make it impossible to understand true growth (or not).

I don't care what the industry is, I consider it a big red-flag when you're looking through 10Q filings and find things that are either unnecessarily complicated or financial figures which are quite simple, but parsed in a way that is seemingly irrational. This is both. Back in the day, for something like this which is literally their #1 revenue driver, we'd be like **** it, we're out, and just sell. That might be one of the reasons Vail's stock's been dumping. I've never met a management team that didnt think it was smarter than Wall Street. SPOILER: Very few of them are smarter than Wall Street.

 

[thetrailboss]

As I noted here prior, the CEOs of roll-up strategy expansion companies typically leave before things go to s**t. They know. They depart & the fall-guy (or girl) takes the blame, thus leaving their business reputation intact. He's no dummy this Katz fellow.

"Oh how cute. I know where you ski. I know where your kids ski. It would be a shame if your passes stopped working or somethin'."

 

[jimmywilson69]

Nah as BG said He's probably counting his EPIC stack of cash in the Alps or something.

Did I ever tell you guys I think he skis in Jeans? I bet he has jeans on underneath his storm trooper costume/uniform...

 

[JimG.]

Nah as BG said He's probably counting his EPIC stack of cash in the Alps or something.

Did I ever tell you guys I think he skis in Jeans? I bet he has jeans on underneath his storm trooper costume/uniform...

He definitely wears a fanny pack.

 

[Boxtop Willie]

He definitely wears a fanny pack.

Remember the pics of him on skis? They look like a pair of 150s, straight out of a GLM ski school

 

[thetrailboss]

“Well, since you all here are the voice of Northeastern skiing and riding, and it’s clear that you don’t appreciate me, I’ve decided to show the Midwest more love!”

Vail Resorts Announces Various Improvements For Its Ohio Ski Areas

Snowmaking improvements, lift updates, and new LED lights are some of the big upgrades.

unofficialnetworks.com

 

[deadheadskier]

Hey Robby

Will you take a look at what Powdr is doing? Selling off assets to focus on their core business.

You too can be a hero. Do you really need the New England ski areas? Naw

 

[thetrailboss]

Hey Robby

Will you take a look at what Powdr is doing? Selling off assets to focus on their core business.

You too can be a hero. Do you really need the New England ski areas? Naw

"You've reached Rob. I can't take your call right now because I am too busy being EPIC! Please leave a message and someone will return your call when able. Thanks!"

(And how can selling a big ski resort be explained as "allowing us to focus on the core business" when your core business is running ski resorts?)

 

[deadheadskier]

Well Robert, that's a fair question. Perhaps I should have said "core assets" vs "core business."

My thought here and assumption of why the wonderful company Powdr divested from Killington and soon others is that they looked at what the ROI is on say investing a million dollars at Killington vs Copper and concluded that the ROI at Copper is a much better use of their funds. So why not get rid of the properties that don't return value and instead put all of that money into ones that do bring great value?

You know, operate like a true great business does.
Big companies, say Johnson and Johnson as an example, buy companies all the time and realize the ROI simply isn't as strong as their core assets, and sell them off.

Be like J n J, Bob. Take a look at the Wildcats and Sunapees and move on bro. You're better than this