VAIL SUCKS

[thetrailboss]

Well Robert, that's a fair question. Perhaps I should have said "core assets" vs "core business."

My thought here and assumption of why the wonderful company Powdr divested from Killington and soon others is that they looked at what the ROI is on say investing a million dollars at Killington vs Copper and concluded that the ROI at Copper is a much better use of their funds. So why not get rid of the properties that don't return value and instead put all of that money into ones that do bring great value?

You know, operate like a true great business does.
Big companies, say Johnson and Johnson as an example, buy companies all the time and realize the ROI simply isn't as strong as their core assets, and sell them off.

Be like J n J, Bob. Take a look at the Wildcats and Sunapees and move on bro. You're better than this

I probably should have posted that question on my own and not through Meme Rob.

I still think it looks very odd for POWDR to be dumping most of its ski areas. It is consistent with what folks have been saying about POWDR being vulnerable.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Will you take a look at what Powdr is doing? Selling off assets to focus on their core business.

I think Vail will sell off its first ski area <= 2027.

 

[snoseek]

Well Robert, that's a fair question. Perhaps I should have said "core assets" vs "core business."

My thought here and assumption of why the wonderful company Powdr divested from Killington and soon others is that they looked at what the ROI is on say investing a million dollars at Killington vs Copper and concluded that the ROI at Copper is a much better use of their funds. So why not get rid of the properties that don't return value and instead put all of that money into ones that do bring great value?

You know, operate like a true great business does.
Big companies, say Johnson and Johnson as an example, buy companies all the time and realize the ROI simply isn't as strong as their core assets, and sell them off.

Be like J n J, Bob. Take a look at the Wildcats and Sunapees and move on bro. You're better than this

The two they really have no business running that immediately come to mind are Wildcat and Kirkwood.

I wish Sunapee was still state run and paired with Cannon on a pass although that ship has sailed

 

[trackbiker]

I think Vail will sell off its first ski area <= 2027.

I agree. Their stock is down 53% from it's peak in 2021. Their pass sales have reached their peak and I believe declined last year if you only count the season passes and not the day passes like they did to make the numbers look better. They are a publicly traded company and there will be pressure to get their margins up and their cost down which likely will involve shedding some of their less profitable resorts. The Wall Street bean counters don't care about skiing. They only care about the numbers.

 

[thebigo]

I wish Sunapee was still state run.

Spent some time a few weeks back looking into sunapee lease. Multiple sources indicate 2028 but I have no idea what happens in 2028. Does vail have option to renew? Does the state have option to put it out to bid?

 

[Zand]

I have to imagine Wildcat and Attitash would be the first to go. I can't imagine either one makes Vail that much money and Vail clearly doesn't care much about them. Maybe Crotched and Sunapee would go too. I doubt they will ever sell off the cash cows that are Stowe, Okemo, and Mt Snow unless they really see a need to abandon the east altogether.

 

[deadheadskier]

If the state doesn't renew, wouldn't Vail have the right to pull all the lifts and really any equipment at all? I assume they now own all of the infrastructure.

Too bad the Mueller's sold out. Okemo and Sunapee were both so much better operations under them. I remember closing a season out at Sunapee one year on April 20th. Vail has never operated past 4/11 there.

 

[Smellytele]

If the state doesn't renew, wouldn't Vail have the right to pull all the lifts and really any equipment at all? I assume they now own all of the infrastructure.

Too bad the Mueller's sold out. Okemo and Sunapee were both so much better operations under them. I remember closing a season out at Sunapee one year on April 20th. Vail has never operated past 4/11 there.

I didn’t like Sunapee under the mueller’s either. They were slow opening trails after a snowstorm and seemed to have to groom EVERYTHING before opening it. While they did improve the infrastructure I liked it more under state control. Much more laid back. No “ski ambassadors” telling you to slow down.

 

[deadheadskier]

I didn’t like Sunapee under the mueller’s either. They were slow opening trails after a snowstorm and seemed to have to groom EVERYTHING before opening it. While they did improve the infrastructure I liked it more under state control. Much more laid back. No “ski ambassadors” telling you to slow down.

I hadn't skied there since the 80s prior to 2009ish. So, no memory of the state run days. Mainly referencing the Mueller's commitment to longer seasons than Vail

 

[BenedictGomez]

I agree. Their stock is down 53% from it's peak in 2021. Their pass sales have reached their peak and I believe declined last year if you only count the season passes and not the day passes like they did to make the numbers look better. They are a publicly traded company and there will be pressure to get their margins up and their cost down which likely will involve shedding some of their less profitable resorts. The Wall Street bean counters don't care about skiing. They only care about the numbers.

This is all true, but even more importantly, the debt-bomb cometh. You know it's coming, and there's not much you can do about it.

Wall Street will be like the locusts coming for the ants in, A Bug's Life. I predict "an offering" will be made.


Wa

 

[AdironRider]

Vail was just able to issue 600 mill (to pay off prior debt of 600 mill) for 6.5 percent, a whopping .25 percent increase. If rolling debt over for .25 percent is the offering, they are going to be just fine.

Maintained their dividend as well. Over a billion in cash on hand.

Stock price is basically a vibe check right now. Vail is doing quite well compared to most. Gross revenue is up.

Meanwhile Alpinezone darlings like Gunstock are down over 10 percent in gross revenue.

 

[deadheadskier]

Meanwhile Alpinezone darlings like Gunstock are down over 10 percent in gross revenue.

Is that right? Last year was tough weather wise at Gunstock, so maybe it's true. Where did you read that?

Overall, I would say the financial picture at Gunstock is quite positive in recent years

Tom Day, who weathered a firestorm, leaves Gunstock in a position of strength

GILFORD — When it comes to retirement, Tom Day has a poor track record. Prior to taking his most recent job as general manager of Gunstock Mountain Resort, he had

www.laconiadailysun.com

"Since Day took over in 2020, Gunstock has increased revenue from $12 million to $20 million, and has invested $18 million in capital improvements “without borrowing a dime,” he said."

 

[doublediamond]

My industry source tells me most areas lost money last year. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out with the crappy weather we had.

 

[Edd]

My industry source tells me most areas lost money last year.

This.

 

[AdironRider]

Is that right? Last year was tough weather wise at Gunstock, so maybe it's true. Where did you read that?

Overall, I would say the financial picture at Gunstock is quite positive in recent years

Tom Day, who weathered a firestorm, leaves Gunstock in a position of strength

GILFORD — When it comes to retirement, Tom Day has a poor track record. Prior to taking his most recent job as general manager of Gunstock Mountain Resort, he had

www.laconiadailysun.com

"Since Day took over in 2020, Gunstock has increased revenue from $12 million to $20 million, and has invested $18 million in capital improvements “without borrowing a dime,” he said."

GAC meeting minutes. The CFO provides overall numbers. To be fair, my memory was off and Gunstock is down 10% EBITDA, not gross revenue. Vail EBITDA was down 3% to Gunstocks 10%, so the point still holds IMO. Gunstock did see a drop in gross revenue, although at a lower level than 10% (more like 4%, which tracks with the overall performance of NH ski areas overall per SKINH, so average performance). Meanwhile Vail managed to show a slight increase.

My overall point though is more to challenge Benny's "the stock price is down they are fucked" idea, as Vail's overall financial picture is outperforming most other ski areas in a general sense, and the outdoor industry as a whole (go look at MTB companies, which are universally getting creamed). They aren't necessarily having the best year ever, but are outperforming most. Gunstock is still in pretty good financial shape overall mind you also, but their trend is objectively worse, but that hasn't prompted a "Gunstock Sucks" thread.

 

[urungus]

Gunstock is still in pretty good financial shape overall mind you also, but their trend is objectively worse, but that hasn't prompted a "Gunstock Sucks" thread.

Why should it ? This 556 page ‘Vail Sucks’ thread was not prompted by Vail’s financial performance

 

[AdironRider]

The third post in this thread references how Benedict finally has an outlet for his griping about Vail, which has primarily been focused on their financial performance, so I beg to differ. Every complaint lodged here has an underlying implication of "Vail is going to pay for this", yet they continue to grow. Obviously, something is working for the vast majority of customers.

Look, I'm not a big fan of the mega resorts, and I've put my money where my mouth is and have season passes to Dartmouth and Jay Peak, and am a big proponent of Indy, having one of those passes also. But that said, from a managerial perspective, you cannot argue that pushing advance reservations, season pass purchases, and having predictable open and close dates is bad business.

 

[deadheadskier]

GAC meeting minutes. The CFO provides overall numbers. To be fair, my memory was off and Gunstock is down 10% EBITDA, not gross revenue. Vail EBITDA was down 3% to Gunstocks 10%, so the point still holds IMO. Gunstock did see a drop in gross revenue, although at a lower level than 10% (more like 4%, which tracks with the overall performance of NH ski areas overall per SKINH, so average performance). Meanwhile Vail managed to show a slight increase.

My overall point though is more to challenge Benny's "the stock price is down they are fucked" idea, as Vail's overall financial picture is outperforming most other ski areas in a general sense, and the outdoor industry as a whole (go look at MTB companies, which are universally getting creamed). They aren't necessarily having the best year ever, but are outperforming most. Gunstock is still in pretty good financial shape overall mind you also, but their trend is objectively worse, but that hasn't prompted a "Gunstock Sucks" thread.

A few thoughts

1. One would expect that the wealthiest ski company on earth with a diversified, global portfolio would be a bit more sheltered from regionally bad weather than a mid sized ski area. So I don't really view the comparisons as apples to apples. More like watermelon to raisin.

2. One year does not make a trend. That article I shared highlighted an 80% increase in gross revenue since 2020, plus one year ago Gunstock returning a record reimbursement to the county. Last year was an anomaly due to weather and not part of a larger trend.

3. The Vail sucks thread is largely about operations and not finances. I don't think anyone here particularly cares about their financials other than a few poking fun at the stock drop. Personally, I am critical of and left full time pass status with Vail due to the shortened season and inferior snowmaking performance compared with Peak. I have no complaints with Gunstock regarding snowmaking, the season length has remained unchanged for basically decades, the kids programs are great and they limit capacity to make the weekend experience much more tolerable than most ski areas in New England.

4. Pretty humorous that you call Gunstock the AZ darling. AFAIK , Edd and I are the only Gunstock regulars that also regular post on the forums these days. So, let's be honest, your comments are less about Gunstock and more about your multi decade now obsession with trying to troll me. Still trying after all these years! You certainly are dedicated!

 

[ss20]

I lol'd at comparing Gunstock EBITA to the entire Vail portfolio EBITA. Let's throw in Microsoft, Nividia, PG, and McDonald's in there too so we can get a real accurate comparison of how Vail is doing compared to Gunstock. Don't forget to figure the price of eggs in China in the equation.

No, this post is not supposed to make sense.