VAIL SUCKS

[Newpylong]

Never saw the appeal of WV besides not far from 93. Mediocre mountain and mediocre product IMHO. Always has been.

 

[deadheadskier]

The appeal for me is it has great pitch for cruising, solid continuous vertical and it's by far the least crowded of the ski 93 areas. It's probably less crowded than even Ragged these days. I'll drive straight to Cannon and not even think about WV when natural terrain is available, but IMO Waterville is a better mountain for ripping groomed terrain than Cannon. When that's the type of conditions available I like large vertical lifts and Cannon really doesn't have that except the Tram. Loon is probably the best of the three for that kind of skiing, but way too crowded.

 

[Smellytele]

I always park at Timberline at Bolton and don't find that too bad at all. Main base yes, not good.

I usually park at timberline as well but been a few times when it wasn’t open

 

[2Planker]

That's what Maines for.

1) With sales and income taxes Maine's property taxes are lower. If it's not a second home you're golden. Do you get anything in Maine for your tax dollars? Yes, you get to join the volunteer fire dept and bring your trash to the transfer station.
2) Maine is big, very big. The fastest growing part of New Hampshire is N. Conway. So yea tough to do anything there.
3) The golden rule: live in New Hampshire build camp in Vermont or Maine.

Maine taxes IRA’s. NH does not.
Big factor for those of us who have had an IRA for 30-40 years

 

[urungus]

I usually park at timberline as well but been a few times when it wasn’t open

Can you redeem Indy Pass @ Timberline ?

 

[deadheadskier]

Can you redeem Indy Pass @ Timberline ?

Yes

 

[thetrailboss]

"Hey guys. It's been a long summer. So I've got to ask, who is ready for another EPIC winter?"

 

[jimmywilson69]

HI Rob how's your bottom line now that #MTN is EPICALLY down 50%??

 

[snoseek]

HI Rob how's your bottom line now that #MTN is EPICALLY down 50%??

No shit really? Man I gotta imagine operations gonna cut harder if so. T2b at the cat sometine in February?

 

[jimmywilson69]

High of $372 in Nov/2021 Currently at $169 so down $200/share

its been on a downward trend since that point, indicating that it was way overvalued.

I'm sure someone else can explain it much better than me.

 

[thetrailboss]

High of $372 in Nov/2021 Currently at $169 so down $200/share

its been on a downward trend since that point, indicating that it was way overvalued.

I'm sure someone else can explain it much better than me.

"IT'S ALL BECAUSE OF ALPINE ZONE. I HATE YOU ALL!"

 

[thetrailboss]

High of $372 in Nov/2021 Currently at $169 so down $200/share

its been on a downward trend since that point, indicating that it was way overvalued.

I'm sure someone else can explain it much better than me.

The last thing I heard was that the last investor call was not well-receieved by Wall Street. That was a while back. IIRC the issue was that skier days were dow, sales were flat, etc.

 

[2Planker]

No shit really? Man I gotta imagine operations gonna cut harder if so. T2b at the cat sometine in February?

After last years shit show Most of the Snomakers left...

MickeyD's still pays better

 

[jimmywilson69]

The last thing I heard was that the last investor call was not well-receieved by Wall Street. That was a while back. IIRC the issue was that skier days were dow, sales were flat, etc.

Its a difficult business to be a publicly traded company. Even without global warming, there has always been variability in winters. They also seem hell bent on not being a year round attraction at most properties too, so then its even more dependent on good winters.

Then you have all the things we've complained about in 554 pages of this thread. If it is a good winter and people didn't pre-pay for some days those "last minute" "impulse" sales are gone. And that crowd isn't coming back which is the "climate" they created for themselves and the rest of the ski industry.

 

[ss20]

Their dividend yield is north of a whopping 5% yield. Not sustainable at all. Imo, they're one bad earnings call from a WBD-esque collapse in the stock price.

Maybe if they made walk up tickets actually possible to buy by the masses they'd be able to capitalize on a good winter. Consumers have no credit left there 100% has to be a decline in pass sales this coming season I see no way around it.
I have no idea what their debt situation is but I'm sure it's high from all the acquisitions 2010-2019. Once they refi that debt at higher rates it's over, imo.

 

[AdironRider]

Every customer facing manager I know claims the consumer is very well trained to pre-buy at this point. This notion of the walk up customer being any sort of real driver of skier visits (and this isn't unique to skiing either) is pretty outdated.

I mean my wife and kid had to make advance purchases for Santa's Village tickets for their trip today. In my lifetime I haven't been to a single concert where I didn't buy in advance. Same for sports tickets. It is not hard and most people actually prefer to just buy a ticket from their couch on their phone rather than wait in some line the day of when you are just eager to get in and start having fun. About the only thing I actually buy day of currently is a movie ticket, and even then, its like 50/50 prebuy for me.

In terms of the dividend yield, I suspect the 5% yield will be tough to maintain. That said, the entire outdoor industry had ridiculous ride over Covid. In 2021 outdoor pursuits were the only thing people were allowed to do really (in a quasi normal fashion) given Covid restrictions and no one could say with any certainty that wouldn't be a long term development. So I think the stock price had a little irrational exuberance behind it. Ultimately revenue was still up for Vail regardless so until that starts dropping, dividend should remain.

 

[2Planker]

Really ??

Skiing, going to the beach, and golf have always been weather based so who the hell wants to buy in advance....

NE Value Pass and I'll pay less than $10/day

 

[AdironRider]

Well lets start with basically every family for one. I only have one kid, and his schedule is more booked out than mine and he doesn't even have a job.

I would argue strongly against your golf example also, where I have had to have a tee time every time I've played (setting aside the exclusivity of the best courses requiring a membership, which doesn't help your argument either).

 

[trackbiker]

You can expect maintenance, new lift purchases, and snowmaking improvements to be curtailed for the foreseeable future. Wall Street will demand the profits go up and when sales aren't increasing costs have to go down and/or prices have to go up for that to happen.
They already lost me on several day tickets per year. I'll never buy their pass and I'm not paying their exorbitant day rates.

 

[tumbler]

They might need to start selling. Maybe the dark cloud over NH will lift soon