VAIL SUCKS

[ss20]

No capex for the upcoming summer at Vail properties. Wow.

When you consider the fact that the company has over 1,000 ski lifts it's operating... and the average lift lasts 30-40 years... to not replace a single one is pretty damning...

 

[deadheadskier]

Raise your hand if you think the cuts will only be limited to CapX and corporate workforce positions.

I'm sure snowmaking budgets, lift and restaurant hours, season length and general resort staffing will remain unaffected. <s>

 

[NYDB]

McKinsey & Co. consultant, probably;

‘ I mean you already have their money, what are they going to do if the season is a month shorter? You barely make any money before Xmas and after feb break anyway. Just make the auto renew impossible to cancel. ‘

 

[eatskisleep]

I’ve been calling it since this thread existed. People kept saying “but look the stock is at $350 that shows people like the company” well it was an easy short then. Still is now. Sub $100 eventually. Eventually they too will shed properties. Despite what the media tells you and what the S&P 500 says, things are slowing in most parts of the country. Credit card debt higher than ever, disposable income at its lowest level in years. Consistently missing ER estimates is never a good sign either.

 

[machski]

No capex for the upcoming summer at Vail properties. Wow.

When you consider the fact that the company has over 1,000 ski lifts it's operating... and the average lift lasts 30-40 years... to not replace a single one is pretty damning...

Well, nothing new announced. The Park City Sunrise Gondola goes in this coming summer as previously announced. True they did not announce any capex right now, but the lack thereof was not a pillar of their plan they announced. If they plan to do capex next summer, appropriate to not announce in the same presser that you announced layoffs.

 

[eatskisleep]

Is it true summer ops coming back to Attitash? If so, Nate Waterhouse at the head of bike park? This would be good Vail news…

 

[MikeDeJ]

No capex for the upcoming summer at Vail properties. Wow.

When you consider the fact that the company has over 1,000 ski lifts it's operating... and the average lift lasts 30-40 years... to not replace a single one is pretty damning...

so if they replace 10 lifts a year for the next 20 years they will only replace 20% of their fleet. When you look at this way they really are behind the curve, and that is a lot of lifts per year!!!!!! Unless you don’t plan on owning them for that long. And if you do your debt is going to skyrocket at some point.

 

[thebigo]

When you consider the fact that the company has over 1,000 ski lifts it's operating... and the average lift lasts 30-40 years... to not replace a single one is pretty damning...

Agree with your point but not sure where you are getting 1000 lifts? Back of the envelope I get around 650? Basic math, they should be replacing around 20 per year, 10 at a minimum.

Question is when they start shredding resorts and what goes first. Taking a look at NH and VT, the properties with hotels/condos have gotten new lifts, sunapee/wildcat/crotched have seen nothing. I suspect alterra or boyne would jump at the chance to aquire the sunapee lease, wildcat best hope is likely a local with deep pockets, not sure about crotched? Maybe crotched gets packaged with sunapee?

 

[snoseek]

The state could always take back sunapee right? That would make me happy to have sunappee and cannon on a pass again

 

[thebigo]

Best i can determine the current sunapee lease is up in 2028. Problem as I understand it, the state of NH may own the land but vail owns the infrastructure at sunapee. No way is the state of NH cutting a seven figure check to vail resorts.

Had a lengthy conversion with a CMAC member over the summer, impression i got was cannon as currently operated is not viable without the sunapee subsidy. On a somewhat unrelated note, he was confident cannon would get the tram funds. He was also proud of snowmaking repairs made over the summer.

 

[snoseek]

Best i can determine the current sunapee lease is up in 2028. Problem as I understand it, the state of NH may own the land but vail owns the infrastructure at sunapee. No way is the state of NH cutting a seven figure check to vail resorts.

Had a lengthy conversion with a CMAC member over the summer, impression i got was cannon as currently operated is not viable without the sunapee subsidy. On a somewhat unrelated note, he was confident cannon would get the tram funds. He was also proud of snowmaking repairs made over the summer.

Any word on the new gm? Marketing has been real quiet.

Glad to see snowmaking remains a priority. They've really come a long way and open real strong

 

[crystalmountainskier]

Well, nothing new announced. The Park City Sunrise Gondola goes in this coming summer as previously announced. True they did not announce any capex right now, but the lack thereof was not a pillar of their plan they announced. If they plan to do capex next summer, appropriate to not announce in the same presser that you announced layoffs.

Only twice in the past 5 years have they announced additional lifts after the September quarter. One extra Skytrac at JFBB in 2022 and Over and Out at PC in 2019. Both minor Skytracs. Typically the vast majority of capex is announced in the report they just published. Cash on hand is way down, layoffs are coming. Lifts don't flow out of that.

 

[machski]

Only twice in the past 5 years have they announced additional lifts after the September quarter. One extra Skytrac at JFBB in 2022 and Over and Out at PC in 2019. Both minor Skytracs. Typically the vast majority of capex is announced in the report they just published. Cash on hand is way down, layoffs are coming. Lifts don't flow out of that.

Most likely, but still I dont think the optics would be lost on Vail to announce layoffs in one paragraph of this report and in the next announce $100 million in CAPEX. Or less than that but still you get the point.

 

[deadheadskier]

Indeed. Vail must protect their stellar reputation as an employer that really looks out for the little guy.

 

[thetrailboss]

The spin is “to ensure future growth”.

Vail Resorts Announces Job Cuts to Streamline Operations for Future Growth - SnowBrains

Vail Resorts, the world's largest mountain resort operator, announced significant job cuts as part of a two-year plan to streamline

snowbrains.com

 

[BenedictGomez]

Question is when they start shredding resorts and what goes first.

I'd look at this part of the map, and shed some of the more useless places. Uncornering the Sourthern Pennsylvania market seems like a good place to start. lol
And perhaps a few of the international properties that seem somewhat vanity.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The 0.2% decrease in "frontline roles" is the strangest part of the announcement - if my math's correct that's like a total of about 90 people globally. Makes me wonder if they have 1 or 2 properties they identified that they believe are overstaffed, but in any case that part's trivial.

If that's the case, my money's on Vail itself. I couldn't believe how many colored-coats I saw there everywhere you look. Park City definitely isn't like that.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Consistently missing ER estimates is never a good sign either.

It's fire the CEO territory. Three straight short-term earnings guidance in a row missed is absolutely inexcusable.

And the 4th was only "made" by hitting the very lowest bound of the projection at $825M. This makes one wonder what kind of "accounting magic" they created just so they could hit that magical, lowest-possible number. There's sure to be some BS in that report.

 

[EPB]

Had a lengthy conversion with a CMAC member over the summer, impression i got was cannon as currently operated is not viable without the sunapee subsidy.

This happens all over the place on the corporate side, but if true, this is bogus accounting aimed to justify and/or obfuscate the notion that Cannon is a money pit. Looping in lease income from another property and saying "NH-owned ski areas" are breakeven is putting lipstick on a pig. It will never cease to amaze me that my native NH continues to contort itself into thinking that operating a recreational property for the upper-middle class + should take a minute its government's limited time and money. Boy do I love Cannon though.

 

[crystalmountainskier]

Most likely, but still I dont think the optics would be lost on Vail to announce layoffs in one paragraph of this report and in the next announce $100 million in CAPEX. Or less than that but still you get the point.

Well they announced $83 million in shareholder dividends and $150 million in buying back their own stock so don't think they care about optics.