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VAIL SUCKS

Tin Woodsman

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But are you willing to pay more for your Epic Pass? I don't know how much the cost increase would translate, but let's assume it is 10-15% more? My money says no. Vail is assuming no.

My father-in-law who is keen on business stuff pinged me yesterday about the strike. He said that it must be really taking a toll on Vail's image and business. I said probably not. Why did I say that? Because this thread has thousands of posts of complaints and yet what happens every spring? Folks renew their Epic Passes. Vail figures that the only thing that motivates their passholders is price. They have the metrics and analytics to show that. It's true.
Epic Pass volume was down 2% this year, the first ever decline, so you're patently wrong.

I am highly confident that their renewal rate for 24-25 will be lower than this year.
 

BenedictGomez

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If they are splitting that 300k only among 85 that comes out to $3,529.41 for 2 weeks? If that's the case, they are making more from gofundme than they were making before. That's a strong incentive to stay on strike.

AFAIK, there's something like 160 or 170 on strike, so I presume way more than 85 are getting the pay. Also, in a few days they'll hit 14 days, and then their Union has to pay them $300/head per week, something like $50,000 per week, which is a strong incentive for the Union to settle.
 

Tin Woodsman

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In the pantheon of strike history, this one is particularly dumb.

They already make industry average to above industry average pay, and some of their asks are ridiculous (3 months paid parental leave with a 4 month job, etc... Their Union has been disingenuous, and the, "we cant afford to live here" complaint is laughable. Park City is the most expensive zip code in Utah, you're never going to "afford" a home on $23 an hour, and you probably cant even afford to rent a home unless 4 of you huddle into it splitting the cost. IF you can even find a home, because everything's been turned into short-term rentals and vacation homes of the wealthy. It sucks. It really does, but the ski bum lifestyle is over. Sadly. And if we're being honest, it's not just "over" in Park City, but in most of the nicer ski mountain towns in America (Jackson Hole, Vail, Telluride, Aspen, Stowe, etc.....).
Yes - by all means, let's compare wages in Park City to those in the midwest or wherever. If you want to find something disingenuous, you need to go no further than this post. How about comparing wages to DV just next door?
 

BenedictGomez

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Epic Pass volume was down 2% this year, the first ever decline, so you're patently wrong.

I am highly confident that their renewal rate for 24-25 will be lower than this year.

I think you mean 25-26? If so, I'd have to imagine that will be the case after this **** show. But I dont think it will be dramatic, because I also agree with the others who think people will mostly either A) forget about this B) not give a crap - and just want the cheap season pass aiming for low price above all else.

So on the margins, yeah, I think EPIC pass sales will suffer next year, but it probably won't be the catastrophic drop I see people on social media thinking.
 

thetrailboss

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Epic Pass volume was down 2% this year, the first ever decline, so you're patently wrong.

I am highly confident that their renewal rate for 24-25 will be lower than this year.
Patently wrong? How? My point was that value is what motivates most to purchase or renew. Vail’s bet is that a rock bottom price is too good to resist. Not some of these other issues. Hell, Vail’s own data confirms that their renewal rate was solid. That’s my point. They say that new sales were down. Who knows why…..


Does past performance guarantee future success? Hell no. This coming year might be different but for who knows why. It’s too soon.

Yes there was a 2% decline in unit sales, but revenue was up 4% due to price increases.

Those points are red herrings. Mine is that for most average skiers and riders it’s the rock bottom price and perceived value that matters most. Not gripes about the strike or operational issues. Vail has understood that for years and has been skimping on operations, especially in the east, and has not seen any significant punishment from the marketplace.
 
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Former Sunday Rivah Rat

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AFAIK, there's something like 160 or 170 on strike, so I presume way more than 85 are getting the pay. Also, in a few days they'll hit 14 days, and then their Union has to pay them $300/head per week, something like $50,000 per week, which is a strong incentive for the Union to settle.
The gofundme page uses a 200 person figure. : "If we are able to raise $100,000. Between our almost 200 Patrollers this will mean $500/Person."

We really don't know the truth, only what they say on gofundme which has been used fraudulently in the past. They are up to $304,192 raised now.
 

Tin Woodsman

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I think you mean 25-26? If so, I'd have to imagine that will be the case after this **** show. But I dont think it will be dramatic, because I also agree with the others who think people will mostly either A) forget about this B) not give a crap - and just want the cheap season pass aiming for low price above all else.

So on the margins, yeah, I think EPIC pass sales will suffer next year, but it probably won't be the catastrophic drop I see people on social media thinking.
Yes - meant 25-26. On the margins is all the matters. They had to raise pricing 8% just to generate a measly 4% revenue growth from the product that accounts for 75% of their revenue. Now just take that renewal rate down a measly 2% more to 96%. Now you have to push unit pricing up by double digits, closing the gap to IKON or widening it vs other products, placing further pressure on renewals. How do you think Wall St will react to flat revenue as costs continue to drift upward?
 

thetrailboss

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I think you mean 25-26? If so, I'd have to imagine that will be the case after this **** show. But I dont think it will be dramatic, because I also agree with the others who think people will mostly either A) forget about this B) not give a crap - and just want the cheap season pass aiming for low price above all else.

So on the margins, yeah, I think EPIC pass sales will suffer next year, but it probably won't be the catastrophic drop I see people on social media thinking.
Yeah unless this really gets out of control and other things go into the toilet for Vail, I don’t yet see this as a major economic blow to Vail. Yet at least….
 

BenedictGomez

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Yes - by all means, let's compare wages in Park City to those in the midwest or wherever. If you want to find something disingenuous, you need to go no further than this post. How about comparing wages to DV just next door?
DV pays its ski patrol slightly better than PCMR, nothing crazy. It's also Deer Valley. So...... what was your point again?
 

BenedictGomez

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The gofundme page uses a 200 person figure. : "If we are able to raise $100,000. Between our almost 200 Patrollers this will mean $500/Person."

We really don't know the truth, only what they say on gofundme which has been used fraudulently in the past. They are up to $304,192 raised now.
AFAIK, the 200 figure is basically 100% of ski patrol. But we know not 100% of PCMR ski patrol is Union, and that a few didn't strike. My guess is the "almost 200" is just patrol making the GoFundMe need seem as significant as possible. And they can say it because it's not technically a lie. If it's 173 people, that is sort of almost 200.
 

Tin Woodsman

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Patently wrong? How? My point was that value is what motivates most to purchase or renew. Vail’s bet is that a rock bottom price is too good to resist. Not some of these other issues. Hell, Vail’s own data confirms that their renewal rate was solid. That’s my point.


Does past performance guarantee future success? Hell no. This coming year might be different but for who knows why. It’s too soon.

Yes their new sales were down. And yes there was a 2% decline in unit sales, but revenue was up 4% due to price increases.

Those points are red herrings. Mine is that for most average skiers and riders it’s the rock bottom price and perceived value that matters most. Not gripes about the strike or operational issues. Vail has understood that for years and has been skimping on operations, especially in the east, and has not seen any significant punishment from the marketplace.
I think you misunderstand what a brand is and does. A brand is a promise consistently delivered. When you break that promise, you lose trust and equity and people stop buying your shit. Similarly, your protestations about "value" aren't compelling to me b/c there are two sides to the value equation - what I'm paying vs. what I'm getting. Vail isn't demonstrating to their current/prospective customers that they will consistently deliver the value they are paying for. I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is and place a friendly wager (or donation to a charity of your choosing) that their pass volumes will be lower next season by greater than the 2% decline seen this year. The only way they avert that is by slashing unit process to get the perceived value equation in balance, which is really just a death spiral for them.
 

Tin Woodsman

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DV pays its ski patrol slightly better than PCMR, nothing crazy. It's also Deer Valley. So...... what was your point again?
Oh how cute - you seem to think that the prestige of the resort filters down to how much the hourly employees are paid.

DV patrollers start at $23.50 FWIW.
 

thetrailboss

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Thoughts?

 

thetrailboss

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I think you misunderstand what a brand is and does. A brand is a promise consistently delivered. When you break that promise, you lose trust and equity and people stop buying your shit.
I understand the concept and I see the disconnect. I’m talking narrowly about the Epic Pass. You’re talking about the Vail Brand. I agree that the latter is weaker but that’s from the perspective of a skier. I’d never invest in the ski biz personally because it is so tough.
Similarly, your protestations about "value" aren't compelling to me b/c there are two sides to the value equation - what I'm paying vs. what I'm getting. Vail isn't demonstrating to their current/prospective customers that they will consistently deliver the value they are paying for.
I’m Just stating what I've seen in the almost decade of Epic Pass here and in the east. Vail is the one who believes that the pricepoint for the Epic pass is what drives most of their market and has up to this point. To achieve that low pricepoint they have cut back on season length, pay, etc., etc. They are going by what WalMart has done in the past--the only thing that matters to most is price. And a 2% decline in unit sales in the 24-25 season may not be compelling enough for them to change strategies. Not yet at least. As you said, they just drop the price again and voila most people are back on board. That proves my point about operational deficiencies and a strike pissing the market off. Most average skiers don't care. Even though a lot of folks may bitch when the renewal window comes up they hit renew.

I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is and place a friendly wager (or donation to a charity of your choosing) that their pass volumes will be lower next season by greater than the 2% decline seen this year. The only way they avert that is by slashing unit process to get the perceived value equation in balance, which is really just a death spiral for them.
We'll see. Alterra is having a reckoning right now since their IKON sales were flat if not down this year. From what those in the know have said, they interpret the softening to people reacting to the high price point.
 
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deadheadskier

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I think Tin's position that a 2% decline is pretty reasonable if that's what happened this past year. What really prevents the pass take rate from dropping in a major way is Vails strategic market monopolies. They own the Mid Atlantic and Denver plus have strong positions in NY/NE, SLC and Tahoe. I think that matters just as much or more than the cheap cost

Here's a question that could impact pass numbers more than poor performance turning off customers. How long term do their partner resorts sign on for? Could a Telluride or maybe any of their 7 Canadian partner resorts pull an ABasin and say fuck these guys and jump ship? We don't want our brand associated with Vail any longer. How would Wall Street react to Telluride saying see you later? Nice big chunks is what we need

*Please baby Jesus it has been said and so it shall be*
 

PAabe

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Mid Atlantic is cornered bad - every year I am tempted to go Epic at the price it is but I hate so much that my visits and money would be taken away from the likes of Whitegrass, Blue Knob, and Elk and going to the evil empire instead to try to make the pass worth it. I enjoy XC/BC and the rinky dink areas more and more every year to just have an altogether more pleasant time without all of the absolute BS at the big time chain resorts.

The increasing Indy options are now attractive in the Mid Antlantic though to the point where it is much more viable than it was a few years ago. Ikon also has a big presence now with Blue Mountain and Camelback, probably the busiest two areas in the state, though a massive L to lose their only NY area

I will say I was pleasantly surprised how normal Roundtop seemed compared to chaos elsewhere
 
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