Cold Start to November?

[Greg]

Changed again.

You know what Yogi Berra says... it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

I figured as much. I'll take "normal" at this point.

 

[Marc]

I figured as much. I'll take "normal" at this point.

I think they oughta change their terminology on that map to average, above average and below average.

Normal implies that there are normal temperatures ever... which we all know from living in New England is not true. There is an average, but we rarely see the average.

 

[wa-loaf]

Talking about snow Thursday night and Friday morning.

 

[KingM]

Normal implies that there are normal temperatures ever... which we all know from living in New England is not true. There is an average, but we rarely see the average.

I agree.

I was thinking the other day that it would be great to see a winter with 10 degree below average temps and then I realized that probably wouldn't help us much. Most of the time when we get hammered with rain, the temps jump from 15 degrees to 50 degrees and then swing back down into the 20s. If we lowered that 10 degrees, we'd be even colder on the front end, still rise into the rain category, and then drop back down again. Net result would be colder but with the same weather.

 

[riverc0il]

My new aggregator is paying dividends already. Latest from Matt Noyes suggests pretty cold this week with possible snows in NoNH/ME later this week. SWEET!!!

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...-wednesdaywill-continue-into-the-weekend.html

 

[RootDKJ]

Local News12-NJ weatherman: "There's going to be a dive in the jet stream that's going to allow the cold weather from Canada move in."

Me: BRING IT!!!

 

[4aprice]

On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter. That would line up very nicely with a Thanksgiving start.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

This was written last week and from what I'm seeing and reading is still on schedule. Next week appears to be warm with some tropical activity in the GOM. After that I'm hearing it could be "release the hounds". I still got some leaves to get rid of so I accept the warmth this weekend and get ready to start the season around T day.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[Harvey]

I'm not much of a weatherman really. If it looks bleak I'm pretty quiet. And I'm always looking for a rationale that will turn the slightest sliver of hope into the next Valentine's Day.

The image below is WAY long term. But it's weather porn, and I've had a helluva time finding any recently.

It's NWS's 3 month T2M...how temps will compare to the long term average:

It seems like the more reasonable 10 and 14 day temp forecasts are starting to come around too. Let's hope.

Sorry about the image size. Every pic I try to post either comes out as a postage stamp, or huge.

 

[tarponhead]

Sorry about the image size. Every pic I try to post either comes out as a postage stamp, or huge.

Please don't be. This is going on my office wall!

Thank you for the stoke!

PS. what are the units?

 

[tarponhead]

It's NWS's 3 month T2M...how temps will compare to the long term average:

and noaa has the long term precipitation is supposed to be below normal too?

 

[Harvey]

Please don't be. This is going on my office wall!

Thank you for the stoke!

PS. what are the units?

Nice... a fellow stokemeister.

The units are percentage of probability. The darker the blue the more likely the area will be colder than average. Could be as little as 1.5 degrees colder. But at this point average or anything colder is gold as far as I'm concerned.

It looks like the way things get posted here (as links) that that graphic will continue to update.

There are a few braves souls calling for a shift to cold after the 17th.

Hope so. This zonal flow is for the birds.

 

[riverc0il]

I just went running yesterday in shorts and a short sleeve t-shirt. Three weeks ago, we had our heat on. Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November

 

[bvibert]

Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November

Agreed, it's starting to look bleak for November...

 

[wa-loaf]

Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November

Agreed, it's starting to look bleak for November...

If we are getting the warm-up out of the way now, that's fine with me.

 

[bvibert]

If we are getting the warm-up out of the way now, that's fine with me.

If this is the only warm-up we get I'll be happy... I'm not that optimistic though I guess.

 

[Greg]

Winter's Cancelled.

 

[severine]

Winter's Cancelled.

The 15-day forecast on Sundown's fan site certainly is looking that way...at least, for this month.

Boo!

2 years ago, Sundown opened ~ Dec 8th (that weekend but I forget if that's the exact day). I was hoping for an earlier start than that this year, especially since we have childcare taken care of for Black Friday.

C'mon, Ullr!!! Bring it on!!!!!!

 

[Greg]

The 15-day forecast on Sundown's fan site certainly is looking that way...at least, for this month.

Boo!

2 years ago, Sundown opened ~ Dec 8th (that weekend but I forget if that's the exact day). I was hoping for an earlier start than that this year, especially since we have childcare taken care of for Black Friday.

C'mon, Ullr!!! Bring it on!!!!!!

Not a good forecast, but not horrible. In 2004 Sundown didn't open until the 17th of December. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that year. Anytime early December is typical. Last year was an anomaly.

 

[severine]

Not a good forecast, but not horrible. In 2004 Sundown didn't open until the 17th of December. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that year. Anytime early December is typical. Last year was an anomaly.

I know... but I was hopeful! If we don't get an early start, then we better get a late season!

 

[Harvey]

There have been a few mets out there talking about cold, but NWS has been silent, until now. It's not much, but it is something:

LONG TERM...from NWS ALY

THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH...RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST PERIOD...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.