Cold Start to November?

[Greg]

Looks promising:

 

[sLoPeS]

yea, but the 15 day for here just changed....

http://www.accuweather.com/us/vt/ki...tner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0

it was 30s/teens and snow as of yesterday.

:uzi: [warmer weather]

 

[Greg]

yea, but the 15 day for here just changed....

http://www.accuweather.com/us/vt/ki...tner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0

it was 30s/teens and snow as of yesterday.

:uzi: [warmer weather]

Oh, yuck. Definitely going in the wrong direction in a big way there. WTF?

 

[Puck it]

Sucks!!!!!!!!

 

[Johnskiismore]

Booooooooooo

 

[Puck it]

Weather.com is still showing cold for the 11/2 and beyond in there 10 day forecast.

Lows are below freezing.

You know it is doing this because I booked the trip to Killington for Thanksgiving.

I apologize to everyone. It is my fault.

 

[KingM]

On a related subject, what's the earliest snow that has a chance of building the base? I mean, other than the excitement of looking out the window and seeing snow in October, this is obviously going to melt off long before the resort opens. But how about early November snow? I know it usually melts off, but does it ever stick around at the higher elevations?

 

[Greg]

Looks promising:

This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?

 

[RootDKJ]

That sucks.

 

[billski]

This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?

that's what weatherman do. can you get away with that on your job?:???:

 

[4aprice]

On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter. That would line up very nicely with a Thanksgiving start.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[riverc0il]

On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter.

I am not seeing the bright side here... Thanksgiving is the last acceptable date for the season to seriously get started. A Thanksgiving start means epic early season fail in my book. Though three weekends of operations at the River is not too shabby all things considered.

Here is what I think: I have seen some sick sick sick early season dumps turn into lack luster seasons. Powderfreak was fond of saying that mother nature loves her averages and I would rather those averages get hit with snow that counts towards base building rather than a few early season larks. Though if it snows, I am there for sure and a foot of fresh in October or November is fine by me if I can ski it! Just seems like it raises expectations too high, too soon.

 

[billski]

I am not seeing the bright side here... Thanksgiving is the last acceptable date for the season to seriously get started. A Thanksgiving start means epic early season fail in my book. Though three weekends of operations at the River is not too shabby all things considered.

Here is what I think: I have seen some sick sick sick early season dumps turn into lack luster seasons. Powderfreak was fond of saying that mother nature loves her averages and I would rather those averages get hit with snow that counts towards base building rather than a few early season larks. Though if it snows, I am there for sure and a foot of fresh in October or November is fine by me if I can ski it! Just seems like it raises expectations too high, too soon.

+1 . I am hoping for some base building while I'm out raking leaves.

 

[KingM]

Well, it doesn't seem like a cold start, but it feels seasonal cool and damp out there. We might get some snow showers later in the week.

Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.

 

[billski]

Well, it doesn't seem like a cold start, but it feels seasonal cool and damp out there. We might get some snow showers later in the week.

Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.

Not so much.

NWS
THU/FRI/SAT...MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SLATED FORTHU-FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH IMPULSE AND THELACK OF PHASING SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR QPF EVENTS. ATMOSPHERE A BITCOLDER LATER IN THE WEEK...SO RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE MIXED WITH SOMESNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.


BTV:.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM THEPREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGIONDURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO ALLSNOW AS THEY TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING IN THE NEK AND THE MTNS.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. FROMWEDNESDAY ONWARD UPPER FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SERIESOF FAST MOVING VORT MAXES IN THE WESTERLIES...AND NEARLYSTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ATTHESE LONGER TIME RANGES THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURESDIFFICULT TO RESOLVE...SO MAINTAINED BROAD BRUSH AND LOWCONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. PRECIP CHANCES TAPEROFF TO THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPWOULD BE ALL LIQUID...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT MAY HAVESNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN, LOWCONFIDENCE, AND ABSENT ANY WELL ORGANIZED FORCING WOULD NOT EXPECTMUCH TO ANY ACCUMULATION. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WE COULD BEIN FOR A BRIEF WARM UP SAT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

 

[billski]

Nice to see NWS is forecasting chance of snow for most of the region, second half of this week.

Let the base-building begin! Plueeeze!

 

[KingM]

From the MRV:

* Today: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 49F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low 32F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tomorrow: Overcast with showers at times. High around 45F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
* Tomorrow night: Rain and snow showers in the evening. A snow shower or two late - otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low 27F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 30%.
* Wednesday: Snow showers early. Highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
* Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
* Friday: Mix of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s and lows in the low 20s.

 

[billski]

From the MRV:

Let me know when you have enough ground cover to make a snowman, and I'll be right up!

 

[4aprice]

Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.

I don't know about the skiing blogs but I've seen plenty of blogs on the weather sites and most are pointing toward a pretty healthy winter. We had a cool summer and fall in my opinion has been pretty normal with some spikes of heat but mostly cool. The leaves are 95% off the trees here in North Jersey which seems a tad earlier then usual. I'm still up on a good winter and think the back side will be quite active storm wise.

I guess I not as gung hoe as some for early season skiing. I think in 44 years of skiing I've only skied before Thanksgiving once. Even when I lived in Northern New England I never skied before Thanksgiving and my father said back in his day they never skied till after Christmas. The WROD has little appeal to me (and my wallet). Technology has gotten better and better and we've gotten longer and longer seasons. I like to pile up days on the back end of the season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[Marc]

This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?

Changed again.

You know what Yogi Berra says... it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.