Cold Start to November?

[severine]

Didn't 07-08 start really warm and dry and then turn out very snowy and awesome?

I remember doing the downloading thing on Canyon chair at Mount Snow thanksgiving 07 (or was it 06?).

That was the year the local ski area opened ~ Dec 8th and Christmas week was pretty rough even. I don't recall much of the season after Feb 15th due to my knee injury, but the snowstorm at A-Basin over Mother's Day weekend that year was great.

 

[2knees]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook. This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.

 

[Greg]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook. This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.

Cool! It'll be interesting to see if their 7 day forecast begins to indicate this shift...

 

[billski]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook. This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.

Roger Hill sees a similar trend.
In most cases NWS is to be taken seriously. Anything out of BTV-NWS (burlington) is good.

In all cases, this is nearly 10 days out, the world could change by then, and even the most credible of forecasters will tell you such.

 

[2knees]

In all cases, this is nearly 10 days out, the world could change by then, and even the most credible of forecasters will tell you such.

really? i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.


i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario. some more then others.

 

[severine]

really? i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.


i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario. some more then others.

The more sources that agree with a cool down Thanksgiving on, the happier I am, even if it isn't 100% accurate.

Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend, but hopefully they'll be set up for the following weekend.

 

[billski]

really? i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.


i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario. some more then others.

I wasn't talking to you. there are 9,999 lurkers who believe otherwise :lol:

 

[2knees]

t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best. I wouldnt get to worried about that. i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs. i know for a fact i'm not going to be skiing nearly as much this year so i'm not wasting any days skiing 5 hardpack groomers at killington for $983 a ticket........

 

[Greg]

i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario. some more then others.

Some of the discussion there will make your head spin. Still good stuff though.

Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend, but hopefully they'll be set up for the following weekend.

t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best. I wouldnt get to worried about that. i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs.

Last year was Sundown's earliest opening (November 28) and I believe the first year there has ever been skiing in CT on Thanksgiving Weekend (outside of maybe Woodbury) and that was only because Thanksgiving was later than normal, like this year. But maybe Mohawk opened on Thanksgiving weekend one year that I just don't remember.

Even if the Accuweather forecast is right, I don't think there is enough time to get a November opening this year, but who knows. Maybe that Sunday is a possibility. If not, I'll be heading north to Vermont, or west to Hunter.

 

[severine]

t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best. I wouldnt get to worried about that. i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs. i know for a fact i'm not going to be skiing nearly as much this year so i'm not wasting any days skiing 5 hardpack groomers at killington for $983 a ticket........

I'll have little opportunity to get out of state, so it does matter to me (and I had babysitting lined up for Black Friday!). But I hear ya.

 

[hammer]

Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend

Unfortunately, I think it's too late for many smaller areas in Southern to Central NE, including those that normally open up on T-Day weekend...:sad:

 

[severine]

Last year was Sundown's earliest opening (November 28) and I believe the first year there has ever been skiing in CT on Thanksgiving Weekend (outside of maybe Woodbury) and that was only because Thanksgiving was later than normal, like this year. But maybe Mohawk opened on Thanksgiving weekend one year that I just don't remember.

Even if the Accuweather forecast is right, I don't think there is enough time to get a November opening this year, but who knows. Maybe that Sunday is a possibility. If not, I'll be heading north to Vermont, or west to Hunter.

I prefer my short-term memory. I know it was their earliest opening, but it's aimed for every year, from what I understand. Seemed like the cold in Oct was an indicator of a good trend to come this winter, which is what makes it disappointing this year. But it is what it is and I'll be happy when they open, regardless of when that is.

 

[2knees]

Some of the discussion there will make your head spin. Still good stuff though.

no doubt about that. i dont understand at least half of what is said but you get the general idea of what is going on.

 

[2knees]

I wasn't talking to you. there are 9,999 lurkers who believe otherwise :lol:

i shouldve used an emoticon but i really thought you would catch the sarcasm without it. i'm a little grumpy right now. this weather is killing my business too.

 

[andrec10]

This just in from Accuweather...

Cold Blast Coming for Thanksgiving for Eastern States
11/18/2009 10:01 AM
A major change to colder weather will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the week of Thanksgiving, just in time for millions of Americans to hit the road

By Alex Sosnowski
AccuWeather.com
A major change to colder weather will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the week of Thanksgiving, just in time for millions of Americans to hit the roadways and skies to be with family and friends.

While warmer air will first build in the western third of the nation, a blast of cold air will roll southeastward from the northern Plains and will sweep into the East and South.

The push of Arctic air will have shock value in that it would follow what has been an unusually warm first half of November for much of the nation.

In addition, the arrival of the cold air will spin up a storm that will target the Plains and Great Lakes.

Rain is in store for the front end of the storm. However, on the northwest flank of the storm and in its wake, enough snow will fall to hamper travel in some areas.

Locations most likely to have snow for most of the storm will be parts of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The action of cold air passing over the warm waters of the Great Lakes will create lake-effect snow. Wherever these bands of snow set up downwind of the lakes, travel could be slowed to a standstill.


It appears the lake-effect event will be ramping up on Wednesday and will spread eastward into the northern Appalachians Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.

The Thanksgiving week cold push could be a precursor to what lies ahead for December. AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi is expecting a colder-than-average December for the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

The details of the storm and the magnitude of the cold air will unfold over the next few days, so be sure to keep checking in.