Crystal open letter addressing heavy crowds

[crazy]

Population growth and multi-resort passes are the big contributors to the increased crowding that we're seeing at places like Crystal, Stevens, Alta, Snowbird, and many more. I would venture that in the short-term, the Ikon Pass has resulted in a decent amount of increased crowding at these resorts, maybe more so than population growth if we limit ourselves to a one or two year window. What's not talked about as much is how much more popular powder skiing is. Technology has made it easier than even to ski powder, but the biggest change is social media. If you follow any of the ski resorts, any of major skiers, or any other skiing-related accounts, you are being bombarded with pictures upon pictures (or videos) of people shredding powder. Add FOMO and word-of-mouth to this equation, and you genuinely have more powder chasers than ever. I'm guilty of this myself, until a few years ago I was content to stick to the groomers. It wasn't until friends kept bugging me about skiing glades and powder that I gave it a shot, and now I'm hooked.

Longer term, population growth (an increase in demand) without new ski resorts opening or major terrain expansions (no increase in supply) will be the biggest factor in crowing at many of these locations. Just look at the stats on population growth in Seattle, Salt Lake City, Denver, Reno, and more. Not to mention that a lot of this growth is coming from younger, higher earners (on average), the perfect clientele for skiing.

And even though the last couple of seasons have been a pain in the Wasatch, people I know there have been saying that it's been getting worse and worse for years. thetrailboss, you are part of the problem. I take a vacation to ski at these resorts every year, so I am part of the problem too. So are many of you.

And let's not pretend that finding a solution to the "traffic problem" will really make things better. Let's say that we magically fixed the Little Cottonwood road situation. Guess what? A lot of people who today are fed up with the drive would decide to hop back in and start riding at these resorts again. Poor roads and parking at least help contain the number of people on the slopes. Long term, it doesn't matter if the Ikon Pass goes away: Salt Lake City is growing, and growing, and people have an appetite for powder. That's not going away.

The solution is to either stop growth (good luck with that), or, more realistically, support an increased supply in skiing. Support the huge expansion for Nordic Valley. Support Alta developing Grizzly Gulch (except that Save Our Canyons won't let that happen). Support Snowbird's expansion into Mary Ellen Gulch. If Alta and Snowbird feel like they don't need the increased demand from the Ikon Pass, maybe they'll drop it. But even if they do and it reduces crowing a bit, that's a temporarily blip. Population growth will march forward, and before long crowds, even without the Ikon Pass, will be worse than ever before. I love that the Ikon Pass lets me ski Alta or Snowbird affordably, but I skied these places before the Ikon Pass. And I'll ski them after the Ikon Pass. And so will many, many others.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

I’m pretty sure that it was reported that both Vail and Alterra looked at and passed on buying Jay.


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vail passed. alterra was inconclusive.

 

[slatham]

vail passed. alterra was inconclusive.

Wasn't Alterra looking at Jay around the same time they were speaking with Sugarbush? The purchase of the 'Bush may have eliminated buying Jay but who knows.....

 

[drjeff]

Ultimately with Jay, it's likely going to come down to how far below what is owed the creditors will the receivers overseeing it accept for any offer from whomever it may be.....

The reality is that what Jay will eventually be sold for some day, will probably in the best case scenario be around a 1/3rd of what the creditors are on the books for. It may take a little while longer for someone to put up an offer that the receivers can stomach, since I'm guessing that they'd love to see something with 9 figures in it, verses the reality that mid 8 figures is likely the real value.....

 

[BenedictGomez]

Buying Jay Peak makes too much sense for Alterra, and has been my prediction all along.

As Devil's Advocate, the one bit of data I dont know that could work against Alterra acquiring Jay Peak, is just how IKON'ic is Montreal already? In other words, if Alterra already believes it has significant market penetration in Montreal via Tremblant, then that would make an expensive purchase of Jay Peak unnecessary.

In fact, given how cheap it would be, the fact it's Mom & Pop owned, and the fact it's in Canada, Alterra gobbling up Mont Sutton may make even more sense for it than Jay Peak if it felt it needed a 2nd IKON option in the greater Montreal market.

 

[machski]

The problem with buying Jay IMHO is that while a ton of $$ was dumped into the base amenities, hardly anything was spent on hill aside from the Tram and lower beginner lifts. So you buy it with an aging lift infrastructure, a very low capacity Snowmaking system that can't recover well after a weekend like last. I would think that along with any residual issues from EB5 would make many pause or pass on it unless it's at a fire sale price.

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[machski]

When talking SLC crowds, I can buy Ikon has increased crowds going up BCC by a substantial amount (Unlimited Solitude and 5 or 7 at Brighton). I still don't buy the same argument for LCC. You only get 5 or 7 days MAX in that canyon period, not 10 or 14 (Alta/Bird days are combined not separate). While some will undoubtedly hold out for Powder days to use those precious few days up there, it's not like they get unlimited up there. So Ikon adds a bit to LCC traffic but more to it than that there.

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[abc]

I still don't buy the same argument for LCC. You only get 5 or 7 days MAX in that canyon period, not 10 or 14 (Alta/Bird days are combined not separate). While some will undoubtedly hold out for Powder days to use those precious few days up there, it's not like they get unlimited up there. So Ikon adds a bit to LCC traffic but more to it than that there.

Good luck convincing the "locals" who had 'endured' it happily, in years before Ikon. :roll:

If they had grown up there, it's the new comers who make the traffic unbearable. But if they only moved there some years back, it's got to be Ikon!

 

[BenedictGomez]

When talking SLC crowds, I can buy Ikon has increased crowds going up BCC by a substantial amount (Unlimited Solitude and 5 or 7 at Brighton). I still don't buy the same argument for LCC. You only get 5 or 7 days MAX in that canyon period, not 10 or 14 (Alta/Bird days are combined not separate). While some will undoubtedly hold out for Powder days to use those precious few days up there, it's not like they get unlimited up there. So Ikon adds a bit to LCC traffic but more to it than that there.

I absolutely buy it.

It sits on top of a population hub of 1.2M people, people who now have every possible incentive to be IKON customers.

Not only that, but hoards of North America IKON owners who now likely view Utah as a great one-stop-shop for lots of "free" skiing. Hell, just our little online "population" here alone you read about people asking questions about Utah who've never been, or who are going to Utah because they own an IKON pass.

 

[ss20]

The problem with buying Jay IMHO is that while a ton of $$ was dumped into the base amenities, hardly anything was spent on hill aside from the Tram and lower beginner lifts. So you buy it with an aging lift infrastructure, a very low capacity Snowmaking system that can't recover well after a weekend like last. I would think that along with any residual issues from EB5 would make many pause or pass on it unless it's at a fire sale price.

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I've heard this argument before but I'm not convinced. The Jet is from the mid 80s iirc and it's length is reasonable for a fixed grip. The The Flyer is a late 90s detach with plenty of life in it. Bonnie Quad needs replacing, that's a no-doubter... so we've named one lift that definitely should be replaced.

As far as snowmaking goes it's a moot point up there, imo. The "die-hard" skiers aren't going to Jay Peak to ski groomers...whether snowmaking is 60% or 95%. For the "casuals" if the skiing sucks they got the waterpark.

Just my thoughts but I've only been there a handful of times, maybe I'm reading the clientele wrong.

 

[kingslug]

Its why I finally agreed with my wife to base out of PC. The Canyons don't get crowded and no crazy uphill road to navigate. And its cheaper to stay in PC than at the Cliff or Alta. Powder Mountain and Snowbasin are a great alternative as well. Alta/Bird is just getting a bit nuts to deal with..not that I won't.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

jay's snowmaking system is called the jay cloud.

 

[machski]

jay's snowmaking system is called the jay cloud.

I'm aware and have benefited but it is not at all reliable. Their lack of Snowmaking fire power is a liability when trying to sell the property to perspective new owners. Whether that is a negative to their skier base, maybe not as much. But if you are looking to buy it and make it a center Jewel of your Northeast Portfolio, the ability to provide a reliable skiing product is essential. And as far as I'm concerned, Jay doesn't have that.

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[BenedictGomez]

Its why I finally agreed with my wife to base out of PC. The Canyons don't get crowded and no crazy uphill road to navigate. And its cheaper to stay in PC than at the Cliff or Alta. Powder Mountain and Snowbasin are a great alternative as well. Alta/Bird is just getting a bit nuts to deal with..not that I won't.

I feel the same way. I just don't have the appetite to deal with such stress & nonsense, especially on vacation. Not to mention, PC is much nicer to stay at than SLC or suburbs thereof.

 

[abc]

I absolutely buy it.

It sits on top of a population hub of 1.2M people, people who now have every possible incentive to be IKON customers.

But where do you think those same 1.2M people used to ski before Ikon? Park City? :roll:

Alta-bird is probably one of the "early target" of most midwest and east coast skier choosing to go west. And between Colorado and Utah, the lift ticket at Utah is quite a bit less. Sure, Ikon makes the lift ticket "free". But that's after people pony up the pass money first.

In short, I don't think it change the visitor pattern significantly either. They may have an Ikon pass instead of day tickets. But those are the same people!

Ikon clearly made BCC a lot busier. But with regard to LCC? It's like blaming the Mexicans taking over jobs few would do. Scapegoating!

BTW, of the days I did make it into Alta, it was no busier than how I remembered it. Same with Snowbird. On non-powder weekend day, I still end up parking in the same lot as I had the last time I visited (year prior, pre-Ikon).

 

[BenedictGomez]

where do you think those same 1.2M people used to ski before Ikon? Park City? :roll:

Park City, Canyons, Deer Valley, Sundance, Solitude, Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, and maybe even Snowbasin & Powder Mountain. :roll:

 

[tumbler]

I'm aware and have benefited but it is not at all reliable. Their lack of Snowmaking fire power is a liability when trying to sell the property to perspective new owners. Whether that is a negative to their skier base, maybe not as much. But if you are looking to buy it and make it a center Jewel of your Northeast Portfolio, the ability to provide a reliable skiing product is essential. And as far as I'm concerned, Jay doesn't have that.

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I know everyone's got a chubby for Jay but Sugarbush is their center jewel.

 

[machski]

I know everyone's got a chubby for Jay but Sugarbush is their center jewel.

No doubt it is, I was making a generalization in regards to how a perspective buyer might be trying to look at Jay.

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[drjeff]

No doubt it is, I was making a generalization in regards to how a perspective buyer might be trying to look at Jay.

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If one is really honest, in what a ski operations looks at as what constitutes a "jewel", i.e. tickets sold and large daily yields per day per guest (rentals, mountain owned lodging, lessons, food and beverage, etc) I'm guessing that Stratton is the "jewel" in Alterra's eye for their current portfolio of East Coast wholely owned resorts....

No doubt that Sugarbush is way more of a "true skier's/riders mountain" but when you factor in the volume that Stratton does and the often rightly so reputation that Stratton has for attracting lots of folks with high incomes from the NYC, CT "Gold Coast" and Boston markets, and with the relatively compact operations center that it has, Stratton I'm suspecting keeps the big wigs at Alterra very happy

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[cdskier]

If one is really honest, in what a ski operations looks at as what constitutes a "jewel", i.e. tickets sold and large daily yields per day per guest (rentals, mountain owned lodging, lessons, food and beverage, etc) I'm guessing that Stratton is the "jewel" in Alterra's eye for their current portfolio of East Coast wholely owned resorts....

No doubt that Sugarbush is way more of a "true skier's/riders mountain" but when you factor in the volume that Stratton does and the often rightly so reputation that Stratton has for attracting lots of folks with high incomes from the NYC, CT "Gold Coast" and Boston markets, and with the relatively compact operations center that it has, Stratton I'm suspecting keeps the big wigs at Alterra very happy

All depends on how you define "jewel" though (which you alluded to). Stratton is no doubt a major profit generator for Alterra so could definitely be seen as a "jewel" from a purely business/profit perspective. But Sugarbush is much more of a "jewel" from a skier's perspective and probably better fits the mold of what many existing and potential Ikon pass-holders are looking for. Stratton isn't likely to sway many people that are trying to decide between Epic and Ikon. However Sugarbush could certainly be something that tips the scales next year more in favor of Ikon for many people on the fence between the two. Stratton's "contribution" to Ikon would mainly be existing pass-holders that are simply loyal to Stratton (I could be wrong about this of course). Whereas Sugarbush's "contribution" would be to potentially pull in some people from the competing Epic pass that were looking for a "true skier's/rider's mountain" as you put it.