Possible Nor'easter for 11/27

[billskis1]

ok, my pulse rate just doubled in the time it took me to read Roger Hill's update today re Jay. Again, it's early, snow-starved people are gonna be prone to wishful thinking etc etc etc but when you read a call of possibly > a foot by Sunday and then maybe > another two feet later next week, well, it's time to PAY ATTENTION

Roger sometimes gets a little too excitable (check his font size) about these things. Depending on how Scott's prognosis shapes up, we might have something after all. But as Scott says, if nobody is turnin', you'll be earnin'!

 

[billskis1]

NWS has an optimistic voice:

As of 400 am est tuesday...while the holiday itself will be
rather benign...the holiday weekend will be rather active.
confidence remains high that the north country will see snow this
weekend. But first...the rain...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...WITH
PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STILL WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH NW
FLOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...AND ALSO THE RAIN
SNOW RATIO. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT A LOW RATIO WET TYPE OF
SNOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES BARELY
SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT SEVERAL INCHES WILL FALL IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

 

[Glenn]

I want to jump out the window every time I hear one of the achors say to the weather guy lately: "Well, at least this rain isn't snow!"

Although, I know the weather guy on the channel I watch is probably doing a slow burn when they say that because he's a big snowmobiler.

 

[billski]

I want to jump out the window every time I hear one of the achors say to the weather guy lately: "Well, at least this rain isn't snow!"

Although, I know the weather guy on the channel I watch is probably doing a slow burn when they say that because he's a big snowmobiler.

Fix:
1. Rent a dump truck.
2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.

 

[billski]

The man speaks

"Finally after weeks of boredom we may actually have something of importance occur weather-wise. The jury is still out this storm but the potential for is there for a long-duration precipitation event"

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/

 

[riverc0il]

Matt Noyes posted a 10 minute discussion in his On Demand video section:
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/

Pretty cool how he posts technical discussion and walks through all the reasoning behind his thoughts showing the various models and his preferences and interpretations of them. His bottom line is 6-12" across Northern New England, especially more in upslope favored areas. Matches up with Scott's forecast.

 

[rocojerry]

nothing kills productivity at work more than forecasted pow.
Guess i'll be working late tonight.

 

[billski]

Guess it's time to clear all the hiking and soccer gear out of the trunk and re-pack with winter essentials.



​

 

[psyflyer]

I have frequently seen these type of storms rain on everyone and dump on Jay. During the lift serviced season, these are my all time favorite storms because the Jay doubters and nay sayers stick their nose up in the air and everyone else sees rain and no one wants to gamble on a wash out. I have been skunked before with wash outs by far more often than not, Jay lines up just right between the precip and the cold to get the best of both worlds when most other places get rain. I am planning on earned turns at Jay on Saturday for sure.

One day last December during mid-week (early to mid December) at Burke we had 8 inches overnight and a few more into the day, and also Jay got about the same or slightly more. However most resorts in mid to lower VT got mixed precip, and rain...

 

[billski]

One day last December during mid-week (early to mid December) at Burke we had 8 inches overnight and a few more into the day, and also Jay got about the same or slightly more. However most resorts in mid to lower VT got mixed precip, and rain...

I'm not holding much hope for the southern greens forecast. The temps are too marginal. Would be happy for everyone though to be wrong!

 

[Glenn]

Fix:
1. Rent a dump truck.
2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.

My 4x8 trailer could hold a good amount of shavings.......

 

[billski]

Matt Noyes posted a 10 minute discussion in his On Demand video section:
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/

Pretty cool how he posts technical discussion and walks through all the reasoning behind his thoughts showing the various models and his preferences and interpretations of them. His bottom line is 6-12" across Northern New England, especially more in upslope favored areas. Matches up with Scott's forecast.

Steve, that was really interesting (I didn't expect so), thanks for pointing it out.
What I liked a lot was the focus on analysis and the regional/n. hemispehre approach to his discussion. He seems much smarter in his analytical work than the TV forecasts he must present. What I hate are the forecasts they make these guys force-fit into two minutes. Those who are competent must be extremely frustrated.

 

[o3jeff]

Fix:
1. Rent a dump truck.
2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.

My 4x8 trailer could hold a good amount of shavings.......

This was in front of Bank of America in Simsbury yesterday morning. Looks like a ishovelsnow calling card.

 

[Glenn]

That's trailerable!

 

[Harvey]

Or maybe drive the trailer to Jay Peak and park it.

 

[JPTracker]

Latest forecast at www.snow-forecast.com for Jay

Bottom Mountain: 1.1" NCP changing to snow Fri Afternoon - Total Snow by Sun morning: 8.7"
Mid Mountain: 0.8" NCP changing to snow Fri Morning - Total Snow by Sun morning: 12.6"
Top Mountain: 0.1" NCP changing to snow Thursday Night - Total Snow by Sun morning:17.8"

Looks like a trip to Jay is in order.

Maybe even a repeat picture for my avatar

 

[awf170]

Not to crush your dreams or anything, but snowforcast.com basically has the worst forecasts ever. The website is a joke.

 

[JD]

Either we ski, or the rivers come up....pow either way.

 

[polski]

Josh Fox (Single Chair Weather Blog) is up with his annual winter forecast. In short: Temps normal to slightly above normal but snowfall "outstanding," 300+ inches for MRG.

edit: probably not the right thread for that. Josh does briefly address the weekend, saying significant accum in higher elevations but not enough to get MRG open.

 

[severine]

This was in front of Bank of America in Simsbury yesterday morning. Looks like a ishovelsnow calling card.

:lol: Yup, I would think he'd be the culprit.