Possible Nor'easter for 11/27

[polski]

Last several hours it seems N NH has been the sweet spot on that Intellicast radar - big blotch of blue, with heavy precip rotating in off the ocean from the general direction of Portland. Wildcat tweeted a pic of about an inch at the base just before dark, with consistent large flakes falling. Starting to wonder if Cannon might be the bullseye, with decent accumulation from front end (nor'easter, which may be peaking right about now) and solid potential into tomorrow from backside upslope.

 

[riverc0il]

Starting to wonder if Cannon might be the bullseye, with decent accumulation from front end (nor'easter, which may be peaking right about now) and solid potential into tomorrow from backside upslope.

Cannon is officially my personal bullseye for tomorrow regardless of where the storm bullseye is. Cannon will not get the same upslope that the northern Greens will get on the backside of the storm. But with thick base building snow, it is kind of besides the point.

 

[riverc0il]

It is amazing watching the radar loop right now. Sweet!

 

[polski]

Via Facebook:

Cannon Mountain As of 6pm, we've seen 4 or more inches of snow at the base and 2x that at the summit and still snowing!

Steve, agreed Cannon is not likely to get as much upslope as the northern Greens but I suspect they got a significant head start today. If you're thinking Cannon tomorrow and Jay on Sunday I think you've got exactly the right idea. A few factors complicate my own decision-making but most likely I'm looking at MRG or Stowe or (outside chance) Jay on Sunday or possibly Monday.

 

[riverc0il]

One of the benefits to Cannon is the wind protection on the front face. There is no real sheltered areas at Jay whereas trails like Avalanche are great short vert trails close to the parking lot when the summit is being blown to bits.

Snow total projections for NoVT seem to have come down considerably even with the upslope. I have concluded there is definitely no reason to drive all the way to NoVT until actual numbers have been reported. 4" at the base of Cannon is way more than what is being reported in VT so far.

 

[billski]

BFP article on the storm:

Snip:
Just for fun, here's my prediction for snow accumulation in a few places. (Let's see how close I get)
Burlington: 0.2 inches.
St. Albans: 0.5 inches.
Montpelier 2.5 inches.
Waitsfield 5.0 inches.
Northfield 7.0 inches.
Top of Mt. Mansfield: 11 inches
Top of Jay Peak: 15 inches.

Snip:
Meteorologists at NWS Burlington have compiled of list of years with very late first snows. Most of those years, but not all of them, went on to have below average snow for the season:
Here's a list of latest first measurable snows, and the seasonal snowfall that winter. Normal snowfall is about 80 inches

FIRST SNOW SNOW TOTAL THAT SEASON
12/7/1937 ............................45.1 inches.
12/5/15................................ 54.4 inches.
12/1/48................................ 40.7 inches.
11/30/18 ..............................69.6 inches.
11/30/53.............................. 83.6 inches.
11/30/60 ..............................51.6 inches
11/28/13............................... 56.5 inches
11/27/41............................... 57.7 inches.
11/26/82............................... 80.5 inches
11/25/57............................... 94.9 inches.

 

[polski]

One of the benefits to Cannon is the wind protection on the front face. There is no real sheltered areas at Jay whereas trails like Avalanche are great short vert trails close to the parking lot when the summit is being blown to bits.

And it's gonna be some windy tomorrow ... though I recall skiing Cannon the day after the 2007 Valentine's Day storm (in 26") and it was one of the few areas around that had lifts not on windhold. That included the tram to the summit. I saw an explanation of this phenomenon once but forget now what it was. Pretty sure those were NW winds that day, and there were 6' whalebacks up top from the storm itself.

Snow total projections for NoVT seem to have come down considerably even with the upslope. I have concluded there is definitely no reason to drive all the way to NoVT until actual numbers have been reported. 4" at the base of Cannon is way more than what is being reported in VT so far.

I don't recall anyone predicting much dumpage in the northern Greens before this evening though. That said, a little discouraging to see current temp at Stowe base (1640') is 35.6F ... What happens overnight is key. That Intellicast radar is now lit up blue all the way down the Greens and through the Berkshires so the higher elevations should be getting whacked.

As this is gonna be far from blower no matter what, I'm not worried about only getting sloppy seconds. So my current plan is to see who finds what where tomorrow, head north Sun a.m., earn some turns that afternoon and grab some more Mon a.m. (possibly with a little refresh then). Main thing is I've confirmed my new AT setup is ready to go, with skins to have been trimmed tonight, in Burlington. BRING IT ON!

 

[ZYDECORICH]

be patience my pretties... all in good time... all in good time.

 

[deadheadskier]

Snip:
Just for fun, here's my prediction for snow accumulation in a few places. (Let's see how close I get)
Burlington: 0.2 inches.
St. Albans: 0.5 inches.
Montpelier 2.5 inches.
Waitsfield 5.0 inches.
Northfield 7.0 inches.
Top of Mt. Mansfield: 11 inches
Top of Jay Peak: 15 inches.

Snip:
Meteorologists at NWS Burlington have compiled of list of years with very late first snows. Most of those years, but not all of them, went on to have below average snow for the season:
Here's a list of latest first measurable snows, and the seasonal snowfall that winter. Normal snowfall is about 80 inches

FIRST SNOW SNOW TOTAL THAT SEASON
12/7/1937 ............................45.1 inches.
12/5/15................................ 54.4 inches.
12/1/48................................ 40.7 inches.
11/30/18 ..............................69.6 inches.
11/30/53.............................. 83.6 inches.
11/30/60 ..............................51.6 inches
11/28/13............................... 56.5 inches
11/27/41............................... 57.7 inches.
11/26/82............................... 80.5 inches
11/25/57............................... 94.9 inches.

How does that measure up with Stowe / Bush totals though? I've lived in Burlington for five years of my life. While calling it home, I never really felt like Btowns accumalation was a good barometer for what was going on at elevation.

 

[polski]

Sat a.m. early risers may want to check for updated spotter reports from NWS BTV; a few from this evening:

VERMONT

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
DANVILLE 2.0 900 PM 11/27 SPOTTER
SHEFFIELD 2.0 745 PM 11/27 STATE POLICE

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
EAST BROWNINGTON 6.8 1145 PM 11/27 1500 FOOT ELEVATION
BARTON 4.5 1000 PM 11/27 1500 FOOT ELEVATION

The first two are SW and due W of Burke, respectively. The latter two are NW of Burke, roughly halfway between there and Jay. Note differing times of observations.

 

[JD]

0 inches as of 3:30 a.m. in Northfield....stowe cam show almost nothing there as well. I wonder what happened at elevation? Heading to J late morning unless I get reports that Stowe got "enough".

 

[WoodCore]

Had about an inch here in Ludlow at 1800 feet elevation. Probably nothing down in town. Regardless the wind is HOWLING this morning.

 

[KingM]

What a bummer. Not a flake on the ground here on the valley floor in the MRV. I was expecting to wake up to a couple of inches of white stuff.

I know that it snowed up on the mountain, which is the important thing, but I still wanted to see it down here, too.

 

[Ski Diva]

Had about an inch here in Ludlow at 1800 feet elevation. Probably nothing down in town. Regardless the wind is HOWLING this morning.

I live about 4 miles north of Ludlow. No snow here, either. But we do have a tree down in our yard.

 

[Euler]

No snow in Jacksonville

No snow in Jacksonville, VT...about 25 minutes south of Mt. Snow. The Mt. Snow webcam shows a dusting on the mountain,

 

[polski]

Judging from that Intellicast radar from p2, I suspect what happened was the low wound up hugging the Maine coast -- it now looks to be over the very easternmost tip of Downeast -- instead of looping inland. Thus the axis of upslope snow has shifted east. When I went to bed around 2 a.m. (no dawn patrol for me, ya see) the Green Mtn spine was still getting lit up but now it looks done there, while N NH (also Burke, possibly Jay) and NW ME are still getting it.

A few quick excerpts from NWS spotter reports:

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   CRAWFORD NOTCH        10.0   820 PM 11/27

...COOS COUNTY...
   JEFFERSON             14.5   743 AM 11/28
   RANDOLF               11.5   737 AM 11/28
   PINKHAM NOTCH          5.0   821 PM 11/27
   PINKHAM NOTCH SCENIC   4.0   732 AM 11/28   COOP

VERMONT

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
   WALDEN                11.0   646 AM 11/28   2250 FT ELEVATION
   DANVILLE               4.0   545 AM 11/28
   SHEFFIELD              2.0   745 PM 11/27   STATE POLICE

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   JAY                   10.0   548 AM 11/28   RT 105
   EAST BROWNINGTON       6.8  1145 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION
   BARTON                 4.5  1000 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
   MENDON                 4.0   549 AM 11/28   RT 4

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
   WESTON                 4.0   550 AM 11/28   RT 100

Also the MRG webcam shows an unskinnable dusting at the base but whiter higher up. And people climbing.

 

[polski]

via Twitter

bretton_woods 14-18" reported from the guys on the hill! Learning Ctr Quad w/3 trails now & maybe more in the near future? http://ow.ly/i/9xr

jaypeakresort 7-8" reported at the base by staff this morning. Snowing heavily at 7:15am.

sundayriver Just got off the phone with one of our snowmakers and he is reporting 6-8 inches on top of Locke!

SugarloafMaine has eight inches of heavy wet snow here at the base and even more up top! Winter's back baby!

KillingtonMtn 10" of wet, base-building, snow atop Killington Peak this morning.

(but ... as of an hour ago K-ton had a power outage and all 130 guns offline)

Me: If you want stoke, click that BW link

 

[polski]

Stowe website reports 6-18" with 12" at the Mansfield Stake. (18" in drifts or ??). Snowmaking on Upper Lord & Ridgeview so far.

Smuggs website reports 10-12" up top

no updates from Cannon yet but judging by BW report and radar that's looking like a sweet spot

thirdhand report via TGR of 12+ atop MRG and skiable 2/3 of the way down. Vermont-oriented mags bemoaning epic forecast fail but I'm not sure anyone was forecasting much snow at mountain bases, only higher up.

 

[polski]

A few updates: @jaypeakresort reporting 12-16 atop Montrealer, @skiwildcat 6" at 2000' and 12-18 summit w high winds creating rime ice. Also someone on TGR climbed Smuggs and said it was mostly wind-scoured, with some drifts to hit. Lot of gusts to 50+ being reported across the region.

and now first earned-turn reports coming in to SKIVT-L - Stowe: deep/heavy snow at top, skiable down to parking lot; Bolton Valley 6" at base and a foot+ up top. Between water content and wind-loading it sounds like a very dense snow, which raises my confidence in trying brand new midfats on it ... doesn't sound like hitting rocks is much of a problem.

 

[WJenness]

Sugarloaf reporting over a foot at the top of the SQ, with a 'big announcement' coming soon.

Are we looking at another area opening up?

-w