Superpasses: more crowds?

[urungus]

This is the real and fast approaching problem.

Nobody goes there. It’s too crowded.

— Yogi Berra

 

[drjeff]

Here we are with more apologizing for ski resort management incompetence. You guys must own Vail stock or something. This "historic crowds" argument is bull and I can't believe management is literally blaming the customer for the problem. For example: Jackson tried to blame crowding on historic snowfall, that wasn't even in the top 3 in the past decade in terms of total snow last year. Just this past January they had "the most snow ever between the dates of Jan 3rd and 11th". Are you kidding me? That is some arbitrary history. Not the most snow ever in a week, or the most in January, just the most between a specific 7 day period in January. That is thinly veiled customer bashing and it is unbelievable you guys are letting them get away with it.

Ski resorts, if they are going to flood the place, should be able to manage crowding effectively. Anything else is pure incompetence.

But I do agree that Colorado doesn't actually get that much snow. It just doesn't get the freeze / thaw cycles.

It will be interesting to see in the coming years, if the crowds stay increased, and the resorts are presumed doing well cash flow wise, there's a bunch of lifts all across ski country, both East and West, still in operation, that were built in the ski area terrain expansion boom of the mid/late 80's and into the early 90's, that are approaching 30-40 years of service, that may very well be looking at replacement in the coming years. Will the choice be made to upgrade capacity, or potentially even re-think the placement of key lifts, especially ones that get people up and out of the base area and/or don't have any other option to ski out of once you get to the base of the lift, or will it be just a straight replacement, with some shiny new lift, that may run faster, but not necessarily carry any more people per hour?

Many resorts will have the chance to in essence re-invent how they move guests up the hill in the coming years as some equipment nears the end of the functional service time

 

[thetrailboss]

http://blog.vail.com/a-lot-on-the-l...I9JPZAZ0siSAoT-7YYq6ZX0Ot-lkDh2SnGe8DjyKyhL9k

Good on her for at least acknowledging the problem and for taking responsibility.

And I have not posted in this thread, but many of you know how I feel on this one. Ambivalent to be precise. Awesome deal for consumers, but it is "too good to be true" and causing a lot of crowding problems.

Once again, Alterra and its IKON pass partners are not accepting responsibility for the huge crowding mess they have created with the "too good to be true" IKON product and they are in denial or simply remain silent.

AR pointed out JH's response to crowding last season, which as many of you saw, was the party-line position trotted out by Alterra and adopted by its partner resorts. The "snow" was of course the reason. :roll: Second reason was of course their "passholders". Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

It is interesting how non-Alterra owned resorts are so quick to stick with the 'party-line' in the face of angry passholders and locals. It is also interesting as to how these areas just can't help themselves from drinking the kool aid as to how this is somehow good for business. Last year we all were puzzled as to how the partner resorts get compensated and why they would seemingly give up on the bigger bucks from passholders for peanuts from IKON. Well, in thinking about it, I doubt that they are getting compensated $xx per day for each IKON pass, but are instead incentivized to get more skier days in the program such that at the end of the year the pie is divvied up to those based on their share of the total skier days as opposed to a flat fee per day. In other words, the resort who has the most IKON pass days gets the largest share of the pie.

There are now like 30 pages of posts here that I have not read, but perhaps someone has figured out the compensation scheme.

 

[abc]

This is the real and fast approaching problem.

Yep, very fast.

Given the number of mountains that ski just as well but without the long lines (at the time), it was an easy solution. I stick with A-basin (and then Loveland) for the subsequent years.

Eventually, I branched out into other region. (the high lodging price of Summit county sent me over to Utah and California... longer and slightly more expensive air fair notwithstanding) It isn't until I got a free place to stay that I returned to ski Colorado regularly.

Frankly, I don't care WHY it's crowded. I just try my best to avoid it. Skiing somewhere else is the obvious alternative. It's not like Vail is the only good mountain!

 

[1dog]

Good on her for at least acknowledging the problem and for taking responsibility.

And I have not posted in this thread, but many of you know how I feel on this one. Ambivalent to be precise. Awesome deal for consumers, but it is "too good to be true" and causing a lot of crowding problems.

Once again, Alterra and its IKON pass partners are not accepting responsibility for the huge crowding mess they have created with the "too good to be true" IKON product and they are in denial or simply remain silent.

AR pointed out JH's response to crowding last season, which as many of you saw, was the party-line position trotted out by Alterra and adopted by its partner resorts. The "snow" was of course the reason. :roll: Second reason was of course their "passholders". Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

It is interesting how non-Alterra owned resorts are so quick to stick with the 'party-line' in the face of angry passholders and locals. It is also interesting as to how these areas just can't help themselves from drinking the kool aid as to how this is somehow good for business. Last year we all were puzzled as to how the partner resorts get compensated and why they would seemingly give up on the bigger bucks from passholders for peanuts from IKON. Well, in thinking about it, I doubt that they are getting compensated $xx per day for each IKON pass, but are instead incentivized to get more skier days in the program such that at the end of the year the pie is divvied up to those based on their share of the total skier days as opposed to a flat fee per day. In other words, the resort who has the most IKON pass days gets the largest share of the pie.

There are now like 30 pages of posts here that I have not read, but perhaps someone has figured out the compensation scheme.

Does seem like the business model many service companies have adopted - basic drug dealer proposal that gives you the 1st hit free. ( Not that I'd know anything about that personally)

When mobile phone carriers gave the 'free' phone with a long term agreement - AT&T got $600 for each Apple product back in the day from Apple.

The grandaddy of them all is Amazon - selling everything at or below cost to grab customers - the studies from the MBA's showed that customers once make a habit X% stick regardless of rising costs.

If you're interested in paradigm-changing business models, Scott Galloway from Stern School of Business has a great one - yes 3 years old, but may explain some of the thinking behind the consolidation of ski areas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWBjUsmO-Lw

Assuming each will get more - but not all - customers who try the resort because they have 7 days at each ( Ikon I think). Like airlines, the lifts are running anyway - sell $5 drinks and $15 burgers - and maybe the place becomes their favorite.

I'm selfishly sad because MRV is becoming crowded but hey, the price ( $800?) and the size of crowds won't last - free phones went away.

Everyone who expects more cap investment is correct I think but I don't expect it soon. Then there are the regulators and environmental hurdles. . . . .

Growth for the 1st time in a long time for the industry - will they reinvest properly to hold customers? We will see. .

 

[Zermatt]

I'm selfishly sad because MRV is becoming crowded but hey, the price ( $800?) and the size of crowds won't last - free phones went away.

There were never really free phones. All I remember is $200 iPhones and really expensive phone service with an embedded financing built into your monthly bill.

Now, I pay full price for my phones but I get to shop the cheapest/best phone service options available. I remember paying upwards of $180 per month (with a discount) for two lines on AT&T with unlimited data. Now I pay $160 all in for 5 lines of unlimited everything (ironically also includes 2 free iPhone 11s).

Not sure how this relate to skiing though. I do know it would be hard to ever shell out $200 for a day pass.

 

[thetrailboss]

Does seem like the business model many service companies have adopted - basic drug dealer proposal that gives you the 1st hit free. ( Not that I'd know anything about that personally)

I can see how you would think that, but I seriously wonder about IKON. Their justification is that they have to compete with Vail. We'll see what happens in 2020-2021. The optimist in me thinks that they will make changes. The realist in me thinks that they won't do a damn thing because the money is too good.

The grandaddy of them all is Amazon - selling everything at or below cost to grab customers - the studies from the MBA's showed that customers once make a habit X% stick regardless of rising costs.

I think that the theory with Amazon is that they are more interested in your data as to what you buy instead of the actual business of selling stuff. They want the traffic.

I'm selfishly sad because MRV is becoming crowded but hey, the price ( $800?) and the size of crowds won't last - free phones went away.

I hear you...

Everyone who expects more cap investment is correct I think but I don't expect it soon. Then there are the regulators and environmental hurdles. . . . .

Growth for the 1st time in a long time for the industry - will they reinvest properly to hold customers? We will see. .

That used to be the case that folks wanted big improvements every season. Les Otten promised that at SR. Now, I don't think it is quite as much of a thing as opposed to being open and consistent.

 

[deadheadskier]

Call me a realist, but I don't see Vail or Icon making many changes to reduce crowding. It's kind of like Disney. They don't care when people have to wait 90 minutes in line for Space Mountain as long as attendance remains up.

With all of the bad press on over crowding this season, there hasn't seemed to be any reduction in the number of people willing to deal with it. Will that change in the future? I kinda doubt it.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[abc]

I think that the theory with Amazon is that they are more interested in your data as to what you buy instead of the actual business of selling stuff. They want the traffic.

That's correct. The data is worth a whole lot more than the profit from the books and grocery you buy through them.

At least with Amazon, you're basically subsidizing your purchase by selling your own personal data (not that you have much other alternatives).

How people so willingly give up their personal data for far less is more sad.

(Some of my work in the past dealt with data and the mining of it. So I know how valuable personal data really are. And yet we're so willingly give it away for next to nothing)

 

[drjeff]

Call me a realist, but I don't see Vail or Icon making many changes to reduce crowding. It's kind of like Disney. They don't care when people have to wait 90 minutes in line for Space Mountain as long as attendance remains up.

With all of the bad press on over crowding this season, there hasn't seemed to be any reduction in the number of people willing to deal with it. Will that change in the future? I kinda doubt it.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app

I tend to agree.

The only thing that I could see Vail doing potentially, is placing another resort or 2 on black out days over the Holiday periods with the Epic local pass

Ikon, well lets see if the presumed unlimited days with the top level pass for Sugarbush plays out as many think it will, other than that, they likely won't change much, if anything I would guess.

Until they see a fall off in pass sales, regardless of the level of the pass, I think the biggest change that you'll see from both EPIC and IKON is them maybe buying and/or partnering with additional resorts, rather than changing their pass access to what they currently have

 

[abc]

Call me a realist, but I don't see Vail or Icon making many changes to reduce crowding. It's kind of like Disney. They don't care when people have to wait 90 minutes in line for Space Mountain as long as attendance remains up.

Ikon and Vail operate differently though.

With Ikon, the partners can opt out if they perceive being part of Ikon is hurting them more than helping them. Next spring will be a watershed moment as most of the partners are locked in for 3 years initially. They don't have to renew the partnership if they don't want to.

With Vail, you're probably right. Basically, if your local hill is owned by Vail, you really don't have any alternative. Vail is your local Disney! There's only one Disney in the whole world!!!

But for those in locale with alternatives, it's up to the customer to decide whether they buy an Epic pass or a local pass. The local pass may not be any cheaper, though quite possibly less crowded.

 

[thetrailboss]

Ikon and Vail operate differently though.

With Ikon, the partners can opt out if they perceive being part of Ikon is hurting them more than helping them. Next spring will be a watershed moment as most of the partners are locked in for 3 years initially. They don't have to renew the partnership if they don't want to.

Completely agree. I am waiting to see what happens, but will not be surprised if not a damn thing changes.That said, I do know from someone "in the know" at Snowbird is that their season pass sales for 19-20 were lower than last season with the belief being that more people went to IKON. So if these resorts are seeing lower pass sales, then they will sit up.

With Vail, you're probably right. Basically, if your local hill is owned by Vail, you really don't have any alternative. Vail is your local Disney! There's only one Disney in the whole world!!!

But for those in locale with alternatives, it's up to the customer to decide whether they buy an Epic pass or a local pass. The local pass may not be any cheaper, though quite possibly less crowded.

Exactly. With only a handful of exceptions, those in EPIC are Vail properties. Snowbasin and Sun Valley are independents who offer some days (IIRC Telluride is as well). I am wondering if the Holdings are going to sell Snowbasin and Sun Valley soon.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Lots of social media posting by folks coast-to-coast at EPIC & IKON blackout spots saying yesterday "wasnt as bad as they'd thought" it would be.

Circumstantial Evidence piece #88,061

 

[bdfreetuna]

My wife showed up to Pico extremely late yesterday... at least 11:00am and said it wasn't crowded at all.

I think between the cold and everyone expecting it to be really bad, a lot of folks stayed in yesterday instead.

 

[thetrailboss]

Lots of social media posting by folks coast-to-coast at EPIC & IKON blackout spots saying yesterday "wasnt as bad as they'd thought" it would be.

Circumstantial Evidence piece #88,061

Alterra's response: "The quiet day was not because of any blackouts on the IKON pass. The reason for the quieter Saturday is clearly because folks are getting ready for the much-anticipated Daytona 500."

 

[snoseek]

Alterra's response: "The quiet day was not because of any blackouts on the IKON pass. The reason for the quieter Saturday is clearly because folks are getting ready for the much-anticipated Daytona 500."

This is a joke right?

 

[Edd]

Gunstock (again, not on any joint pass) was not mobbed yesterday when it was cold but big crowds today.


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[bigbog]

This is a joke right?

Seek....and I thought the daily 98' Lynnway 500 commute was a roadrace....once rented a 4-cyl Corolla ~5yrs ago expecting accelleration of my 1973....:-o. The increased desire for speed & racing:roll: on the highways around us isn't just my aging judgement..

 

[bdfreetuna]

^ 126 horsepower to the crank @ 6000 rpm... is your neck OK or still recovering from the whiplash?

 

[BenedictGomez]

With so many people now owning these megapasses, I wouldn't be surprised if it's true that holidays may ironically be less crowded, because the people who own them wont want to "pay" to ski.