The Official 1/14 Storm Discussion Thread

[drjeff]

too many words. what did he say?

Depends where you live Sun/Mon about whether it's wet or white, then maybe another storm Tues/Wed (more likely to be white) and that storm looks like it will bring a pattern change that get's us back in the cold air for the rest of the month

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

the Cliff Note Version: Chances are there will be weather on Sunday Monday Tuesday. Its amazing that Weathermen/women have insurance policies that protect them from giving an incorrect forecast...its a tough biz

I'm ski burning tonight.....some old K2 Fours and Atomics.....there WILL BE SNOW!!!!

 

[from_the_NEK]

Whoa. :blink: I'm retarded. Not only did I think that MLK Day was this coming Monday, but I started a storm discussion thread about it... Merged and threat title fixed.

Purely more wild speculation... Looks like the GFS has something big in store for the 20-21st, which happens to be MLK weekend. Therefore, you may only be slightly retarded (or maybe you can just see that far into the future ;-) )

 

[loafer89]

Oh goodie, excellent skiing conditions in my backyard:

:angry::angry::angry::angry::smash::uzi::flame:

Snow Map--Low Confidence for Now
Friday, January 11, 2008
[SIZE=+1]
HERE'S MY FIRST GUESS AT THE SNOW MAP FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM.
I probably should not post the map yet with all the doubt on the track of the storm, but it seems to me the models are coming into a consensus that the track will remain off the coast and that the storm ends up being a I-95 corridor storm. I know that opens up a lot of debate on the p-type given the fact the storms have produced mixed precip in that area. My confidence level is low on the forecast at this time, but it at least is a first guess as to what might happen. I am sure as we go through the next 24 hours we will see various solutions on the track of the storm.
One of the issues with the storm is the clipper coming across the Great Lakes and the role that clipper plays in the track of the storm. I think the GFS is trying to make a lot out of that clipper, which in turn pushes the storm farther out to sea. That might be correct, but again, it might not. The map below is based on that clipper being stronger and nudging the storm eastward.
[/SIZE]

 

[Greg]

Still a few days away. Things can change...in either direction.

 

[bvibert]

I know it's not ideal for the northern guys, but I'll take 3-6" at Sundown to get things going again...

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

Of course....I'm leaving for Smuggs this afternnon for 5 days...now LI is on track, but Smuggs is off....I cant win here!!!! hopefully it'll swing back west and dump!!!

 

[loafer89]

Still a few days away. Things can change...in either direction.

And they most likely will, to a storm even further offshore.

At the very least Eastern C.T may get some snow to cover up all the mud and ugly browish colored snow that remains.

I still have a week before we go ice skating at sugarloaf, maybe a miracle will happen.

 

[Greg]

Looks like Worcester is forecasted to get about 0.8" of precipitation in the form of snow Sunday into Monday:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=MA&stn=KORH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Looks like the mighty WaWa wins out for this one......so far...

 

[loafer89]

Right now we have the typical weather that one would expect for early January, such as thunder, lightning and heavy rain:-roll:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Looks like the ski areas on Long Island and Natucket are going to get dumped on..woo hoo

 

[The Sneak]

Looks like Worcester is forecasted to get about 0.8" of precipitation in the form of snow Sunday into Monday:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=MA&stn=KORH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Looks like the mighty WaWa wins out for this one......so far...

Yep...working from home monday so I can get an early start, then be @ wa for 430 pm...

 

[Greg]

The latest GFS model is showing Hartford with over an inch of precip:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=CT&stn=KBDL&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

A foot maybe?

 

[loafer89]

This is from my area forecast discussion and since I am east of Manchester and west of Willimantic my guess is that I will get 4-6", but who cares as there is no skiing near here.

MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW EVENT THANKS TO ONSHORE
FLOW. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW BANDING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE N OF NEW ENGLAND...SO
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW...WITH A
MIX OR ALL RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. THE NEXT QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH SNOW? GIVEN THAT THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PLOWABLE SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF MANCHESTER TO WORCESTER TO
WILLIMANTIC WITH THE CURRENT TRACK. THINKING THIS COULD BE CLOSE TO
AN ADVISORY EVENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ALL MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATED
MODEL RUNS.

Advisory event would mean less than 6" would be expected.

 

[billski]

I want HEAVY SNOW. Then all this meterology discussion will die and we'll all be too tired to post our trip reports. Now that's the life I want

 

[Greg]

The models are coming back to the west with the system with even Barre/Montpelier picking up a half inch of snow precip:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Oh....and get a load of Friday!

 

[loafer89]

Accuweather is predicting 3-6" for our Sugarloaf trip, while Snowforecast says 7-10"

I have seen forecasts of 6-12" for Coventry, so school will probably be out on monday.

 

[loafer89]

The NWS just ussued a Winter Storm Watch for Litchfield, I guess Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties will come online soon. Our NWS office is quite slow and lazy IMO to update their forecast products.

 

[billski]

The NWS just ussued a Winter Storm Watch for Litchfield, I guess Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties will come online soon. Our NWS office is quite slow and lazy IMO to update their forecast products.

prob of 8 inches Monday

prob of 12 inches Monday

 

[ERJ-145CA]

This is from Weather.com for northeastern NJ and southeastern NY:

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.080114T0200Z- 080114T1700Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- BERGEN- EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON- UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 410 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS... DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.