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The Official 1/14 Storm Discussion Thread

Greg

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5-12"

5-12" for my area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-060-061-064>066-VTZ013>015-131100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0001.080114T0300Z-080114T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HOOSICK FALLS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
333 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...
LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...WHICH
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
 

Greg

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This guy has a pretty decent track record:

http://wxrisk.com/

1STCALL.jpg
 

loafer89

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I live right on the line of the 18", so does that mean I will only get 17":lol::lol:

Seriously, Woof, Woof???

Who is this person, Sgt Odball from Kelly's Heroes?

Where you come from, a hero is some kind of wierd sandwich.
 

loafer89

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You mean you never heard the expression "Now lets go woof it up" ? :p meaning lets go have a most excellent time...


I can't say I have.

I like this fellows enthusiasm, though I doubt anyone will see more than 12" out of this storm, though It would be great to be proven wrong.
 

billski

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the odds

I can't say I have.

I like this fellows enthusiasm, though I doubt anyone will see more than 12" out of this storm, though It would be great to be proven wrong.

I like the probability maps at NWS better than a range statement:

As of 730am sunday EST, at least 4"=high, at least 8"= moderate, at least 12" = slight chance.

I think this is a much better way of setting the expectations properly. With a range of inches, you get the impression the odds are the same through the entire continuum, which of course is not.

see: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
 

nelsapbm

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We just got put under a watch for 6+.....is this thing heading more north/inland than originally thought? I havent paid much attention to the weather/news lately.....
 

ajl50

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That map ain't right. This storm is too fast for those accums.
I don't buy it.
 

loafer89

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NOAA says I can expect 7"-15" from this storm, but that is quite a large spread in snowfall accumulation.
 

loafer89

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Powder day at Yagoo Valley:lol::lol:

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW.
FROM CLIMATOLOGY...A TRACK OVER THE BENCHMARK SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO NORTHEAST CT-NORTHWEST RI-BOSTON METROWEST AND
METRONORTH.
 

billski

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We just got put under a watch for 6+.....is this thing heading more north/inland than originally thought? I havent paid much attention to the weather/news lately.....

a watch (means there is a probability) is different from a warning (means it's likely). There is no watch for Burlington. Where are you?

NWS maps suggest that while 6+ is a possibility, its a low probability. Burlington is on the outer limit of that watch.

The way I read, central vt. may see as much as 6 inches tops, but 2-4 is more likely. It's a southern new england storm, tracking from CT and MA then NE to coastal ME. CT, MA and SE NY (i.e. Hunter) stand to be the winners.
 

billski

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NOAA says I can expect 7"-15" from this storm, but that is quite a large spread in snowfall accumulation.

that's why I say look at the probabilities. Best way to read a range like this is, 7 is most probable, 15 is a stretch, the actual amount will be somewhere in between, probably on the lower end.
 

nelsapbm

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I'm about 17 miles from Burlington....yup....we're on the cusp of the watch. At least the mts will get some which is what matters most!
 

loafer89

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NOAA says 3-7" tonight and 4-8" tomorrow for my town with the local weather forecasters calling for a general 8-14" across Northern Connecticut.
 
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