VAIL SUCKS

[EPB]

Cranmore is having a real tough time selling the $700K condos.....

CA$H buyer (for 2 townhouses) doubted Cranmore would have enough coverage in 10 years.
Sad but True...

The lowest priced condo currently on the market is $900k. There was at least one for sub $700 that was on recently. My brother tried getting me to buy it.

The real estate market feels like it's finally softening in MWV and where I am in CT. This sounds like a convenient excuse to hide behind rather than a legitimate concern. Despite the recent warm winters, Cranmore has been doing a good early season vs. when I grew up skiing MWV in the 90s/00s. They also closed at least a week earlier than snow would allow due to lack of traffic this spring. They have the infrastructure and will to get open around Thanksgiving and stay open through the end of March.

 

[thebigo]

Opening dates have pretty much remained unchanged. If they are a little late, it has primarily been dictated by climate change. This is true even for the "King of Fall/King of spring" Killington: When was the last year Killington had October skiing? -- and it's not for lack of trying!

The climate must be changing faster at vail mountains than the competition. In the five years Vail has been in charge, wildcat has not opened before Loon once.

 

[Edd]

The climate must be changing faster at vail mountains than the competition. In the five years Vail has been in charge, wildcat has not opened before Loon once.

Cranmore’s beaten them once or twice, if memory serves.

 

[2Planker]

The lowest priced condo currently on the market is $900k. There was at least one for sub $700 that was on recently. My brother tried getting me to buy it.

The real estate market feels like it's finally softening in MWV and where I am in CT. This sounds like a convenient excuse to hide behind rather than a legitimate concern. Despite the recent warm winters, Cranmore has been doing a good early season vs. when I grew up skiing MWV in the 90s/00s. They also closed at least a week earlier than snow would allow due to lack of traffic this spring. They have the infrastructure and will to get open around Thanksgiving and stay open through the end of March.

Ski house market in MWV is on fire currently.
Places are being snapped up before the listing even hits the web....
2 on our street sold in 1-2 days BOTH for 50K oVER listed price.
Very little on the market for less tha 1M

 

[EPB]

2 on our street sold in 1-2 days BOTH for 50K oVER listed price.

When? I'm taking about lack in asking price appreciation and places seeming to hang on longer in the last ~1-2 months.

Edit - also hearing ~$600k market is softening.

 

[thebigo]

Cranmore’s beaten them once or twice, if memory serves.

We bought early season Cranmore tickets the covid year because wildcat was not open. The short seasons at NH Vail properties is thoroughly annoying. We buy two passes every year, primary pass for mid season and Boyne blackout for early/late season. Would happily switch second pass to Vail if wildcat opened with Sunday River and closed with Sugarloaf.

 

[2Planker]

When? I'm taking about lack in asking price appreciation and places seeming to hang on longer in the last ~1-2 months.

Edit - also hearing ~$600k market is softening.

This summer
Our neighbor is a Badger agent and she is making a killing this summer.
Sold 4 in July in the 1.3-1.7M range

Someone drove around our neighborhood, leaving flyers "We want to buy your house. Please call #"

 

[jimmywilson69]

who are these people? are there actual people moving in? or are these Short term lease corporations?

This housing market is going to crash it seems like its completely out of control everywhere

 

[snoseek]

who are these people? are there actual people moving in? or are these Short term lease corporations?

This housing market is going to crash it seems like its completely out of control everywhere

In nh it's wfh people. It's not just a conway thing this state is filling up fast! Those flyers are in my mailbox all the time it's crazy.

 

[thebigo]

who are these people? are there actual people moving in? or are these Short term lease corporations?

This housing market is going to crash it seems like its completely out of control everywhere

WFH in NH pay no state income tax regardless where the company is located, results in a 5% top up every year for MA workers. Local zoning and property tax rates are set up to limit new construction, many towns have very generous minimum lot sizes and frontage requirements. Current use status significantly reduces property taxes with a generous definition of 'current use'. Doubt there is a lower cost of living in the US for WFH than a 12 acre lot in a NH resort town.

 

[Edd]

who are these people? are there actual people moving in? or are these Short term lease corporations?

This housing market is going to crash it seems like its completely out of control everywhere

Strongly doubt it‘ll crash in NH or ME. High demand and supply is for shit.

 

[2Planker]

Strongly doubt it‘ll crash in NH or ME. High demand and supply is for shit.

Agreed
MWV market is on Fire. Not enough places listed, so things are selling over listing price in less than 1 week.
People are pricing 100K higher and getting it in days.

CRAZY

 

[BodeMiller1]

Cranmore is having a real tough time selling the $700K condos.....

CA$H buyer (for 2 townhouses) doubted Cranmore would have enough coverage in 10 years.
Sad but True...

Less snow than in the 70's & 80's.
60's in Jan, 4 out of the last 5 years.
Hotter summers than when we were kids.
More torrential rain w/ Northern NE Flooding more frequently.

You're in The White Mountains and it has around 1,000 Vertical. Plus, Les Otten is building The Balsoms out across the line.

 

[snoseek]

If end up staying in nh long term mwv is completely out. North of the notches might work though at least for now. I'm completely priced out

 

[2Planker]

You're in The White Mountains and it has around 1,000 Vertical. Plus, Les Otten is building The Balsoms out across the line.

Les is a good friend... But we ski 2K vert at The Cat

 

[EPB]

Agreed
MWV market is on Fire. Not enough places listed, so things are selling over listing price in less than 1 week.
People are pricing 100K higher and getting it in days.

CRAZY

-My in laws are in hospitality up there. Food and beverage revenues are down by about 35% this summer vs last across the valley, apparently.
-This jives with the return to work movement in the flatlands and weakend job market over the last two years (less bargaining power for employees to dictate schedule/WFH)
-Job market softening is consistent with the historical trend that interest rate hikes take about two years to take full effect (negative for foot traffic and budgets in MWV). It's also finally making headlines this week.
-Last time the market could be called CRAZY was 06/07. We all know what happened next. When people feel the most confident is when assets are the most overvalued.

Not saying a crash is imminent like my compatriot, BG, might be more confident to declare. I'd simply say the next 12 months seem quite likely to be slower than the last 12. I'm thinking RE prices +/- 5% from zero. Not astronomically higher or "crashing" either due mainly to limited supply as mentioned by others.

My sense is that it's significantly more likely the cash buyer you mentioned either had a change in their life circumstance, outlook pricing/value or both than that they woke up halfway thru their housing journey and realized they doubted Cranmore's ability to operate.

 

[deadheadskier]

My folks in Florida are looking to cash out due in part market conditions, but also needing to move to assisted living. Most locals down there see a market crash happening soon for two reasons.

1. Cost of insurance due to ever worsening coastal climate conditions is insane. My folks live 2 miles inland from the intercoastal. Their annual insurance on a 2300 square foot home is $4800. Those prices are going up like 10% a year.

2. Many boomers starting to die off.

Not seeing similar conditions in New England to drive down prices, though NH and ME do have very old populations.

 

[2Planker]

-My in laws are in hospitality up there. Food and beverage revenues are down by about 35% this summer vs last across the valley, apparently.
-This jives with the return to work movement in the flatlands and weakend job market over the last two years (less bargaining power for employees to dictate schedule/WFH)
-Job market softening is consistent with the historical trend that interest rate hikes take about two years to take full effect (negative for foot traffic and budgets in MWV). It's also finally making headlines this week.
-Last time the market could be called CRAZY was 06/07. We all know what happened next. When people feel the most confident is when assets are the most overvalued.

Not saying a crash is imminent like my compatriot, BG, might be more confident to declare. I'd simply say the next 12 months seem quite likely to be slower than the last 12. I'm thinking RE prices +/- 5% from zero. Not astronomically higher or "crashing" either due mainly to limited supply as mentioned by others.

My sense is that it's significantly more likely the cash buyer you mentioned either had a change in their life circumstance, outlook pricing/value or both than that they woke up halfway thru their housing journey and realized they doubted Cranmore's ability to operate.

Except that - He ( the CA$H buyer) said that his #1 reason not to buy at Cranmore was the fact that he didn't know if they'd have enough coverage in 10-15 years...

 

[EPB]

My folks in Florida are looking to cash out due in part market conditions, but also needing to move to assisted living. Most locals down there see a market crash happening soon for two reasons.

1. Cost of insurance due to ever worsening coastal climate conditions is insane. My folks live 2 miles inland from the intercoastal. Their annual insurance on a 2300 square foot home is $4800. Those prices are going up like 10% a year.

2. Many boomers starting to die off.

Not seeing similar conditions in New England to drive down prices, though NH and ME do have very old populations.

The cost of insurance in FL is wild. My parents have split their time down there over the last few years. Run ups in prices were probably worse and FL appears to be a more friendly place for new construction. Definitely feels more likely to have a major correction than New England when volume comes online as demand (possibly) weakens.

I'd be quite surprised to see significant downward pressure were you are given relative proximity to Boston, no income tax, hybrid work, effect of inflation, etc.

 

[EPB]

Except that - He ( the CA$H buyer) said that his #1 reason not to buy at Cranmore was the fact that he didn't know if they'd have enough coverage in 10-15 years...

I know this person said that. It's BS.

Worth adding that I totally get not wanting to be tied directly to a ski area like that. Your value is tied to the success of one business way more than it would be if you bought elsewhere in MWV.