Weekend of December 14th

[mriceyman]

im hoping I get stuck in kton on sunday and am forced into a pow day again monday

 

[St. Bear]

I'll take a couple trails of powder. And if they open anything else, all the better.

 

[buellski]

Anyway looking forward to a good dump this weekend!

As my grandad used to say, "I'm always looking forward to a good dump!"

 

[Glenn]

As my grandad used to say, "I'm always looking forward to a good dump!" View attachment 9755

:lol:

 

[from_the_NEK]

The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:

 

[4aprice]

The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:

Almost makes me think it will definitely happen now. Gfs is known to lose things at this range and then bring them back (I trust the Euro more). I just have a hunch that there will be a decent storm because its the perfect time of the year for it around here. December 1992 comes to mind.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[skiberg]

NWS post on NEK weather does not seem that concerned. They note difference, but it seems only as to how much. Models are in agreement as to storm just not exact track yet.

 

[billski]

WFO-BOSTON

ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
HERE WE WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A SUPER BLEND OF ENSEMBLES/
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN
CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS!

 

[billski]

NWS post on NEK weather does not seem that concerned. They note difference, but it seems only as to how much. Models are in agreement as to storm just not exact track yet.

The growing consensus is that the bulk of the storm will not track that far north.

 

[billski]

Blue line represents 1" QPF, which would be about 10-12 of fluff, deeper inside the blue, the purple represents 1.5" QPF.

 

[billski]

The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:

Somewhat offshore is good, gets us into the "noreaster" pattern.

 

[skiberg]

Sounds like the general consensus is overall good for most of NE

 

[wa-loaf]

WFO-BOSTON

ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
HERE WE WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A SUPER BLEND OF ENSEMBLES/
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN
CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS!

Front end thump, hehehehe

 

[from_the_NEK]

Well, hopefully we get at least enough to shovel.

 

[billski]

Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.

 

[skiberg]

I saw the same thing. Looks like they are calling for potential of 3-6 or 4-8 inches, not the foot plus we were hoping for.

 

[dlague]

This is how things have been shaping up so far

last storm 2-5 inches = dusting
around Thanksgiving 3-4 inches of snow or more = rain
just before Halloween snow predicted = rain

now = reduced numbers which will probably be lowered more!

 

[WWF-VT]

Gary says 3-6" from Saturday into Sunday in VT, but it's still early to call:

http://www.wcax.com/category/166239/video-landing-page?clipId=9622673&autostart=true

 

[skiberg]

He said "at least"; thank god. I am still praying to Ullr.

 

[Tin]

I could do my PhD on the psychology of skiers before a big storm. Seems like 3 phases...

-Prestorm Hype: (5-7 days out) Models show huge dump (no Freudian thing here though) when everyone is manic/hypomanic
-Middlestorm: (2-4 days out) Models show a little less and some depressive symptoms kick in
-Prior Storm: (2 days to storm) Models show the same amount as in middle storm or prestorm phase and everyone goes back to mania/hypomania