skiberg
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Is there treatment for my condition? I think I need skihab.
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Weekend of December 14th
- Thread starter billski
- Start date
ScottySkis
Well-known member
That the best addiction to have. LOL
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.
Catskills still look snowy?
Boston Bulldog
Member
Still feeling 6-10 inches of fluff in CNE. No matter how much precip the stuff is going to pile up quick north of 495.
TWC already is hyping this storm WAY to much. They gave it one of their bulls**t names 5 days in advance! 5 days! Does a Tropical Storm get named before they form? Of course not! Classic TWC, always looking for a ratings boost.
TWC already is hyping this storm WAY to much. They gave it one of their bulls**t names 5 days in advance! 5 days! Does a Tropical Storm get named before they form? Of course not! Classic TWC, always looking for a ratings boost.
Boston Bulldog
Member
Great Post by ORH wxman at Americanwx regarding this storm:
Here's a list of positives (from a snow/ice lovers point of view) and negative for the upcoming event as it appears on guidance IMHO:
Positives:
1. Arctic dome of high pressure (and its location). Truly arctic air over a snowpack...will help with both thermal gradient and of course keeping the region cold enough for a lot of frozen precip, even if the mid-levels begin to warm.
2. Southern stream energy with gulf connection. The origin of the energy is southern stream out of the four corners region and it taps into some gulf moisture and very warm air that has been stuck under the SE ridge. This generally will not produce a completely paltry storm from a QPF standpoint. I won't be surprised if some of the overrunning modeled becomes heavier on models as we close in on the event when you combine this point with point #1.
3. This is semi-related to point #1...but snowgrowth depth. The depth of the snowgrowth region appears to start off really deep and this should help any lift maximize the efficiency in producing snow. It's the type of stuff that will sometimes produce 1/2 SM SN with 15-20 dbz echoes.
Negatives:
1. Fast flow with no blocking. This is really the only negative in my book. The fast flow may try and put this thing through a meat grinder too much and reduce the system. This would have to happen to an extreme though IMHO to overcome the positives. We are definitely putting the shortwave through a meat grinder...and that is not a bad thing by itself. If it weren't we'd probably see a big cutter with the way the Atlantic is. Its just we want to avoid overdoing the meat grinding. This is not a pattern that produces big coastal lows that drop 18" of snow to a large area. It just isn't...so if you are still hoping for that, you will almost certainly be disappointed this weekend. The fast flow also keeps the mid-levels out of the SW which may cause ptype issues further south...another negative for snow lvers.
1A. I'll call this point 1A since its closely related...but the lack of phasing between the two streams could be enough fo a hinderance to shear this out a little more...with the northern stream acting as a "kicker" to the lead wave. But again, this will have to happen extreme enough to overcome the positives which include a good moisture source and a premade tight thermal gradient to work on.
So we'll see how this trends.
Here's a list of positives (from a snow/ice lovers point of view) and negative for the upcoming event as it appears on guidance IMHO:
Positives:
1. Arctic dome of high pressure (and its location). Truly arctic air over a snowpack...will help with both thermal gradient and of course keeping the region cold enough for a lot of frozen precip, even if the mid-levels begin to warm.
2. Southern stream energy with gulf connection. The origin of the energy is southern stream out of the four corners region and it taps into some gulf moisture and very warm air that has been stuck under the SE ridge. This generally will not produce a completely paltry storm from a QPF standpoint. I won't be surprised if some of the overrunning modeled becomes heavier on models as we close in on the event when you combine this point with point #1.
3. This is semi-related to point #1...but snowgrowth depth. The depth of the snowgrowth region appears to start off really deep and this should help any lift maximize the efficiency in producing snow. It's the type of stuff that will sometimes produce 1/2 SM SN with 15-20 dbz echoes.
Negatives:
1. Fast flow with no blocking. This is really the only negative in my book. The fast flow may try and put this thing through a meat grinder too much and reduce the system. This would have to happen to an extreme though IMHO to overcome the positives. We are definitely putting the shortwave through a meat grinder...and that is not a bad thing by itself. If it weren't we'd probably see a big cutter with the way the Atlantic is. Its just we want to avoid overdoing the meat grinding. This is not a pattern that produces big coastal lows that drop 18" of snow to a large area. It just isn't...so if you are still hoping for that, you will almost certainly be disappointed this weekend. The fast flow also keeps the mid-levels out of the SW which may cause ptype issues further south...another negative for snow lvers.
1A. I'll call this point 1A since its closely related...but the lack of phasing between the two streams could be enough fo a hinderance to shear this out a little more...with the northern stream acting as a "kicker" to the lead wave. But again, this will have to happen extreme enough to overcome the positives which include a good moisture source and a premade tight thermal gradient to work on.
So we'll see how this trends.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.
Yup, this sucker got dialed back in a hurry. The important thing this far out though is that the storm is still THERE. Hopefully by tomorrow night's 00z runs we'll know what we're dealing with.
You watch TWC?
That's so 1996.
Boston Bulldog
Member
lol, I dont WATCH it, I just checked their website!
Savemeasammy
New member
I used to watch twc religiously once upon a time. Like back when they used to actually talk
about the weather. Naming snowstorms? A dumb and desperate cry for attention...
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about the weather. Naming snowstorms? A dumb and desperate cry for attention...
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Cannonball
New member
Here's my take: I'm gonna put the slippery side of my board on an angled slope Saturday, Sunday, and probably Monday. The more crystals underneath it the better. But the only 'cast' I have confidence in is the hindcast.
dlague
Active member
You are right! Whether it is 3, 6, or 12 inches we will be out there either way on Saturday and Sunday!
vermonter44
New member
I planning on going to Sugarloaf for the first time next Tuesday-Wednesday. It would be great if this storm plays out.
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Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app
Boston Bulldog
Member
Amazing GFS run. Coastal low much more consolidated and powerful, 4mb more powerful at that. Stronger coastal equals more precip all around. Colder solution as well, 6+ inches even south of Boston. Arctic high in perfect place for snow all the way to the coast. Back up to 10-12in for CNE. I don't know about NNE, but probably in the 8 inch range.
This was the perfect run for all of NE, hopefully it stays. (Which it probably won't)
This was the perfect run for all of NE, hopefully it stays. (Which it probably won't)
Boston Bulldog
Member
The NAM pumped out its worst run yet. Extremely weak coastal low with temperatures torching north of the pike up to the NH border. Least amount of precip yet in this run as well. 3-6 deal in ski country.
I often don't trust the NAM, but this solution is definitely a possibility, as well as the GFS solution.
I often don't trust the NAM, but this solution is definitely a possibility, as well as the GFS solution.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
GFS still wants to give Plattekill a good thumping!
Good for Gore, Whiteface, and some select s.VT mountains as well if this verifies.
If the 00z Euro comes out in 45 and still has this storm it starts to get exciting.....goin' to bed though.
Good for Gore, Whiteface, and some select s.VT mountains as well if this verifies.
If the 00z Euro comes out in 45 and still has this storm it starts to get exciting.....goin' to bed though.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
GFS still wants to give Plattekill a good thumping!
Good for Gore, Whiteface, and some select s.VT mountains as well if this verifies.
If the 00z Euro comes out in 45 and still has this storm it starts to get exciting.....goin' to bed though.
Hopefully this is correct. Last winter I remember platty was supposed to get feet and they ended up with inch.
Boston Bulldog
Member
Looks like the trends are starting to turn in the right direction! Euro Ensembles came in juicier, stronger and colder with a track that goes just SE of ACK.
Tin
Active member
I hope, still seeing a lot of 4-8" totals.
bigbog
Active member
+1
..and the mentioning of so many Isobars I hear so often...
Anyone???If it hugs the coast, instead of wandering out to sea, it should be good...temps are remaining pretty constant...
Last edited:
billski
Active member
+1
..and the mentioning of so many Isobars I hear so often...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contour_line#Barometric_pressure
billski
Active member
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